This month really was the pits for Realtors and home sellers. REBGV home sales are down about 70% compared with last November and the MOI has roared to over 22 Months. Inventory has started to shrink and will continue to reduce as we approach the year end. Now the speculation begins as to how high the listing count will climb this spring.
Today we are faced with 76% higher inventory than the same time last year (19,524 v. 11,114). This number combined with the horrendous sales numbers (915 v. 2884 last November) has stomped out any of the last few burning embers of this market... Okay, that was a bit harsh but at Novembers sales pace it would take over 22 months to clear out our existing inventory v. 3.85 MOI in Nov. 2007. Wow, what a different market.
The good news is that affordability is improving. Lots of previously priced out Vancouverites may now be able to afford to buy a home in Vancouver! Prices are falling and if you look hard enough you can find some excellent buys, however you may want to sit on your hands for a while longer.
For now let’s all enjoy the holiday season! There are some serious sales going on this season and not only on houses and condos:). Have a Merry Christmas and happy holidays.
Months of Inventory (MOI) Sucks to be Squamish
Listings +76% YOY
Sales -70% YOY
UPDATE
Prices are falling sharply. Believe it or not the average SFH price fell 10% this month. Yes in 1 month. $745,778 for November v. $825,206 for October. The average has dipped 19% since March. It will be interesting to see if the benchmarks also make a dramatic drop.
138 comments:
My how things can change in a years time. 21 MOI, WTF! 2008 has been a very vindicating year for us patient bears. Will our patience be rewarded in 2009? Guess we'll have to stay tuned...
Thanks again Paul for your dedication!
Good deals? Maybe, but it will take time or luck to find them.
Water, water, everywhere,
And all the Boards did shrink;
Water, water, everywhere,
Nor any drop to drink
All I can say is OMG what will the benchmark look like?
Dyugle
915 sales? That must be the lowest since the 80's some time. On a population adjusted basis, way worse. All time low perhaps?
How many in FV?
All I can say is OMG what will the benchmark look like?
I am going with -5%, because that is where I think the practical limit lies. None of the U.S. metros drop more than that in any month. Then again, Vancouver is easily the most overpriced, so anything is possible. And even benchmarked prices can be wonky, so it could surprise on the downside as well.
It's interesting how total listings has hugged the 20K line for 6 months now while all other markers are in free fall, except for MOI.
Is this partly explained by the artifact of listings automatically dropping off the MLS after 90 days?
Does anyone think 30K in spring is plausible?
Great job, Paul. Keep the the good work.
Rob -
I think 30K by spring is not only plausible, I think it is likely.
The Case-Shiller is a 3 month moving average so it would smooth out big drops in a month. Who knows how the benchmark is put together?
Dyugle
Paul, thanks for your honesty and real take on the reality of things in the lower mainland, considering your profession. It certainly makes one think real hard about the type of individuals that are out there doing their best to sell those still over priced properties, while telling us we are near the bottom!
None of the U.S. metros drop more than that in any month.
But all of the really pricey US metros started falling a couple of years ago. They were rolling down a hill, but we are dropping off a cliff.
Beauty graphs Paul! Cheers! My prediction of where inventory would end the year is right on line.
What do you know, the trend really is your friend.
Anyone think this particularly steep drop in sales (and prices) might be explained by the end of 0 down, 40 year mortgages?
As in the last year's appreciation was totally artificially created by those new mortgages.
I mean the appreciation that occurred through 2007 to the peak in Spring 2008.
"Does anyone think 30K in spring is plausible?"
Rob:
I would be very surprised at anything less than 40K by May/June
Hi Paul,
Can you confirm the total GVRD active listings at the end of Dec 2007? The REBGV did not include this info in their report last year. I was able to extrapolate the value as 7871 from your post at the end of Jan 2008.
Thanks!
Anyone think this particularly steep drop in sales (and prices) might be explained by the end of 0 down, 40 year mortgages?
I think the global financial crisis/recession was another, and more significant factor. But the reason BC market took such a big hit (from both) is that it was the last man standing.
Alberta, which has been falling since summer 2007, did not show the same dive. No other Canadian market had anywhere near the overvaluation of BC when the storm hit.
Maggie,
40k? You really think it will be that high in May? Anything could happen I guess. Do you have any particular reason for your choice?
KK- Inventory was at 9034 on the 31st of Dec. and 7871 on Jan 1st 08.
END OF LISTING PEAK IN DECADES
Fear,Speculation,Rush to exit, all those facts were listed in the reasale homes inventory.
Result:No crash,No more fear of downturn,exit started other way around means.
Vancouver Real Estate Market is FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG supported by vast majority of people with supportive local income and international buyers, usa or rest of world does not match with it's timing and performance.
Conclusion:This is begining of downside to resale homes inventory a recorded level at 21,800 in september will never be repeated in decades to come.
Advice:If you are a seller who has listed their principle residence to re-enter at low then take your listing of the market because you won't be able to buy again without losing your hard earning dollars.
How to take your listing off the market?
Just call your realtor and let him know it is very simple as that.
If you are a buyer spend no time go find any deal in area that suit you the best.
Which market is virtually poised to never go down?
VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE MARKET
editing for next showing......
Maggie,
40k? You really think it will be that high in May? Anything could happen I guess. Do you have any particular reason for your choice?
Paul, first- thanks so much for all you do to keep up posted.
Yes, I do think the listings will be that high.
Supply side:
Look around, there is a crane in every inch of the sky, and have you driven through the valley?
It’s even more saturated.
Demand side:
I personally don’t know anyone who hasn’t bought into “you better get in before you get priced out forever”
Demand is virtually exhausted, anybody who was able to beg borrow or steal, got into the game.
There is no pent up demand-none!
Then of course there is the affordability issue, if the managers of this now turned into a Command Economy can find a way to raise everyone’s income by 25% or more, while keeping interest rates low, and bring in a fresh pack of buyers from other countries, to draw down the inventory, my prediction may turn out to be wrong,
But I just don’t see how you can draw down so much of what has already been built and what is in the process of being built.
The other possibility is to halt all current construction.
Supply side: Specuvestors and stock market speculators in trouble will have to sell their primary residences.
I don't know exactly when the large wave will happen, but I'm already seeing increasing numbers of new listings that are Court-ordered sales.
All valid points Maggie. I have been surprised by the pace of our markets decline thus far. Although I don't expect more than 25-30k in to total inventory next spring, at least I have been warned! :)
PW,
You could be right. After the hope of a strong spring market disappoints, negative cash flow investors will have to clear stock and that will contribute to the next rush of inventory.
Price update on blog post.
Paul, thanks for the Dec 2007 data.
Your posted average price ($745,778) is slightly off from the weighted average that I've calculated from your daily numbers ($750,673). I may have calculated something incorrectly, but wanted to check if your data source for this average differs from your daily numbers.
Paul ,is your estimate of 25 to 30k based on the assumption that prices will drop significantly enough to clear inventory, or do you think I am overestimating the combined existing inventory with inventory at various levels of construction, or will some of the projects be left unfinished, and therefore reduce stock?
My numbers are the same as yours. The new number is a REBGV stat so that will be considered the official figure. On occasion there are clerical errors on sales prices etc. Should these be corrected days later I would not have noticed and my numbers would be off slightly. I have caught a few large ones. That would account for the minor discrepancy.
Maggie it's really just hard for me to wrap my head around such a large #, but with the condo completions who knows where inventory could go.
Regarding Paul's update:
For what it is worth, the mean value of the ratio of benchmark to average price (using data from Paul's Monthly Stats page) is 0.87 over the period Feb 2007 to October 2008. The max and min monthly values the ratio were 0.92 and 0.83. Taking 87% of Paul's November average price ($745,778) suggest a benchmark of $650K.
It's likely the benchmark drop will be less than the average. To me it looks like a severe lack of a "move-up" market.
$650K you say? Perchance.
There actually have been two 5% monthly drops recorded on the Case-Shiller index in the last twenty years.
The first was Vegas, in January of this year, at -5.10%. The other one was February this year, at -5.04%.
These are outliers though, as there are very few months for all 20 cities that are more than -4%.
Sorry...the second drop of 5.04% was in San Fran, forgot to mention that.
Just saw this over on Garth Turner's blog:
"Vancouver. Average home price down $75,359 in six months. Annualized decline, 21.7%."
I'm not much of a quant, but does this check out with those of you who are?
Source link:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/11/30/pump-dump/
I'm sure Garth will get a few correction posts, mine included. His figure is the benchmark, not the average. The average is down ~$175,000.
Paul - Thanks for the clarification.
Maggie + Ignatius - All this talk of 40k listings in the Spring and Nov 2008 benchmarks of 650k is making me feel like an optimist! My guesstimate for the Nov benchmark is a more sprightly $665k, and I'm as "bullish" as Paul on spring listings.
Paul, that is one heck of a monthly drop in the avg price.
Meanwhile the Vancouver Sun sez Vancouver condos prices to fall hardest.
Hey Paul, just heard you on CBC radio one! Way cool.
Hey, not just local, national CBC radio news too! Congrats!
Paul, just caught you on the CBC -- glad to see you're getting the recognition you deserve. Great numbers, no BS.
Exx
The average doesn't mean anything substantial.
It's just the average of what people bought that month. A half dozen sales of over 10 million will skew the numbers upwards considerably, or a lack of them will skew the numbers downwards.
It is not an accurate indicator, which is why they came up with the benchmark concept in the first place.
I can't wait to see the spin from the real estate boards on this one. "returning to a balanced market" bla bla bla...
By this time next year, you will be able to buy a single family house on the West Side of Vancouver for $600K. Mark my words.
QED
Paul,
Would you be able to post the CBC interview on your website? I would love to hear it.
As for Benchmark = 0.87 X Average, that just happens to be the average ratio since Feb 2007. I wouldn't put much stock in it as a predictive tool. I'm just impatient for November's official benchmark price to come out.
Ignatius,
Thanks for the comments. Nice to hear a bright new voice on the blog.
Better than the radio I should be on CBC news at 6pm tonight. After a 20 min interview you never know what they will decide to run with. I guess we will find out.
It was pretty nerve wracking. I'm not used to this stuff.
If the stats start to really stink, the best spin strategy for the REBGV would be to simply not spin at all and tell it like it is. This way they can recoup some credibility and also pressure certain sellers to lower prices enough to create transactions, which they depend on for income.
It seems to me that if they can no longer influence buyers, they will need to try something else to maintain their livelyhood.
User Name 2010 is starting to sound both frantic and desperate. Well, at least more so than usual...
Hi all,
I'm part of the "pent-up demand". I have one other friend who has been waiting patiently as well. However, all my other friends and colleagues either bought into the frenzy in the past or have recently/soon-to-be lost their jobs.
Paul, thanks for all the info. I've been watching your updates for a while now. You deserve all the accolades you've received. I'm on the North Shore, so I'm pretty excited about what 2009 has to offer.
"Better than the radio I should be on CBC news at 6pm tonight. After a 20 min interview you never know what they will decide to run with. I guess we will find out."
No sh**? That's awesome! This is pretty cool watching you do the blog and graphs for so long to see things get to this point.
Congrats man, I'm proud of you. I'll be watching. You need a manager? :)
What a rip! Paul only got about 30 seconds on CBC. But well done anyway. He did get 19% drop from the peak out, and 70% drop in sales.
Just saw you on cbc, was quick but to the point, you didn't look nervous at all.
i think paul proves that the real news is coming out good blogs like this one. the msm (cbc) can't keep up with what's really happening.
well done paul
j6p
BUY NOW TO FIND THE TRUTH ABOUT MARKET
Maggie is already down on floor like recession how ever there is a flower and bean in the middle of her mini but why she like to go down again and again?.
Paul is a Realtor so his post also goes down like maggie.
Paul was on CBC ? so what?who is CBC? CBC where Canada lives?aha maybe you guys never have heard of CBC land scam more on that maybe you guys never ever visit to CBC station on Robson hmmmm?
Go there and see what's going on you will be amused to know why paul was there to put another brick in the wall.
BUY NOW TO FIND THE TRUTH OF MARKET BOARD WILL NEVER TELL YOU WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THEIR CALCULATORS NOR ANY REALTOR WILL EVER
User Name 2010:
Have you taken your medication today?
Should I delete 2010's garbage or would that be an abuse of power? ;)
that would be abuse of power because who knows the truth unless we visit cbc studio?
Hi Paul, great job! Please remember us when you are a big celebrity.
When I finally decide to buy, I will give you a call.
But in the mean time I thought I should check with you if:
Tick Tock, Tick Tock,
Is still applicable?
Paul:
If you want to delete 2010's incomprehensible rants, I, for one, would support you. Think of it as a neighbourhood beautification project. Less garbage for the rest of us to step over and around.
Tulip Mania2,
I have heard this tick tock before on december 12,2007 on the last tick tock you have shut off your blogs but i don't know why,do you know why? your site does not tick tock anymore.
Paul,Those numbers are in line with new market fundamental 18,537 wow.
Hi Paul,
Nice job on CBC.
It's heartening to see a realtor with his head on straight. I hope this drums up some clients for you. I know that if we were looking for a realtor on the North Shore, we'd give you a call. (I'm still a promotion or two from buying north of the Fraser, let alone North Van...)
Hi Paul,
Thanks again for the numbers.
I am wondering how much worse things are in West Van (or even North Van) as compared with the average for Greater Vancouver?
I am hearing North Van is not too too bad, but that West Van is melting down faster than anywhere else in Canada, now. True or false?
i missed the cbc interview. Was it on youtube now?
Tulip Mania
I think more appropriate for now is
tock.......
KABOOOOOOOM!
"User Name 2010 is starting to sound both frantic and desperate."
I know, great, isn't it? He sounds like a representative of the Soviet Ministry of Information.
You can see Paul's segment on CBC at:
http://www.cbc.ca/video/popup.html?http://www.cbc.ca/ondemand/newsatsix/vancouver.asx
Starting at ~16:55. Too bad he didn't get more face time.
I suspect this will only be posted until tomorrow.
user name 2010 posts are actually very hilarious
i guarantee he must have been a speculator and is getting roasted by the market right now
as for the 40k listings for next spring no way that is gonna happen, more like around 25 to 30k. with all the completions theoretically it could go higher but i bet those people are STILL waiting for after the olympics to sell
The problem with the newly completed buildings is developers hold back listings. They may have one listing for each condo size, for instance. Its hard to figure exactly to what extent they do it, but it will hide at least some new inventory.
I'm in the 30K camp by spring.
As we speak, developers that have buildings completing are working with their lawyers to develop litigation strategies to force specific performance on pre-sale buyers.
Most of these developers aren't stupid, and they recognize that there are a large number of crummy pre-sale buyers that likely will not be able to get financing.
The developers will give up on off-shore buyers as it is very difficult to enforce a pre-sale off shore (as you know, there aren't many off shore buyers anyway) so the attacks will all be on local buyers with local collateral and potential equity in another home.
I think the carnage that will be forced on these pre-sale buyers will force them, in may instances, to list their primary residences.
Blood in the streets.
Paul,
Re: 2010 - I'm not a fan of censorship. We all know who's worth reading. Let them spew their trash, nothing they say can change where things are going.
In the spirit of freedom of speech - Fuck'em! :D
Patiently Waiting - You're right. I know of several Developers who have recently shut down their pre-sales offices and are looking to put the units on mls as a finished product. They'll only list the units one or two at a time to make it appear as though supply is limited.
Hello Paul,
Canada finally has a Housing Price Index ala Case-Shiller. It's two months behind so Vancouver's most recent drop won't be reflected yet. Here it is:
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
All the best!
Anon 2:39 PM and 10:50 PM,
I know you don't like to see inventory numbers towards hell that why you looks really disappointed actually really, really disappointed.
21,800
18,537
tik!tik!!
I'm not normally in favour of censorship. but Useless 2010 adds nothing to the blog. A rational defense of the perma-growth model, an informed case for inflation kicking in so fast that nominal prices don't have to decrease, pointing out that the bail-outs may yet work, or even that it is a bubble, but not ready to burst quite yet would all be valid points of view and kind of fun to pick apart and refute.
This clown is just an idiot, though. His demented nonsense doesn't even have internal consistency, nor is it funny.
In the interests of fairness, you could always put it to a poll vote?
wow all of sudden you guys start talking about me? okey maybe you have nothing to talk about economy and real estate or else you would be glad to take shat at market,Gone baby gone.
Alright few things i like to know from all posters.
1.Are you pre approved?
2.Do you have enough down payments?
3.Are you prepared to jump into specific area?
4.What suit you best i.e. house,appartment,or town house?
REBGV stats released! Benchmark SFH $666,525. That's a 4.2% MOM drop. Inline with my November 28th prediction of 4-7% made in the previous thread.
I am so smart, so smart, S-M-A-T!!!
Vancouver West SFH benchmark is $1,116,267 down 23.3% its peak in June.
4.2% this month +3.8% last month. Wow, nearly 8% in two months!
Wasn’t Dave saying it would never hit free fall (and when pressured he said free fall was 4%+ per month)? All we need to do now is hit a total of 20% off peak and Dave will have been 100% wrong on everything he said.
and we are already 13.5 percent down off peak
4.2% this month +3.8% last month. Wow, nearly 8% in two months!
The November 4.2% number is for detached (SFH). The detached drop in October was also 4.2% (1-(695962/726331.)=0.042). So it's actually 8.4% drop in two months for detached.
Check your maths. 666,525/726,331-1 = -8.2% in 2 months. That's annualized -40%.
It looks like things are happening quickly however I expect we will see a few months with close to flat price changes. -40% is not sustainable as, likely, this crash will take a few years to play itself out.
In the meantime, I think Paul is right. If you have lots of time and patience, shop around and see if you can find something that works for you. Make sure your Realtor, if you use one, knows the score though. Good deals can take a lot of time to find, especially since you will not budge on the offer price. (Waves hand in Jedi fashion)
If you don't have the time, either pay more or wait.
Chris
"The November 4.2% number is for detached (SFH). The detached drop in October was also 4.2% (1-(695962/726331.)=0.042). So it's actually 8.4% drop in two months for detached."
As Jesse says the number is not 8.4, it's 8.2. It's inverse compounded.
10% off of 100 = 90, 10% off 90 is 81, not 80.
Jesse
"-40% is not sustainable as, likely, this crash will take a few years to play itself out."
Well that would mean prices would hit about 36% of peak in two years. That sounds about right to me for a valley, then it should settle around 40% of peak. All of that is completely in line with my predictions (the time line is a year shorter than I predicted but I did give myself a +-1 year margin of error).
I suspect you're right however. There's likely to be a minor "recovery" in spring/summer that stabilizes the market for a few months before the bottom drops out again.
Hi All, it's Whybuywhenucanrent?
I've updated the price drop chart -- 12 US cities and Vancouver.
We're #1!!!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/29638096@N08/3077522731/
(Plagerized from Seattle Bubble Blog and either Mohican or The Pope)
yes, yes, my bad. Of course we must compound. My point was mostly that October was 4.2% not 3.8% as Drachen mentioned and then my brain farted and decided to add the two 4.2s together.
Exx:
It has very much been the year of the bear. I am curious to see what Dec. will bring. The 70% lower sales are a real shock and a crushing blow to this fragile market.
Vancity/Trent etc.
Thanks for the congrats on the CBC spots. I was very excited to do them
Ignatius:
I have posted the video on my websites under the media section here: http://tinyurl.com/5j34jl
Rob:
Garth added a fair bit of price info. that I forwarded to him. You can find that here: http://tinyurl.com/58zoa6
Re: 2010:
Let's just see what happens. A couple more gibberish posts and I will post a poll on euthanizing 2010. I do fear that deleting his posts could create more of a nuisance than ignoring them.
Tulipmania:
I am with Drachen. Tick tock may need revision. It's a great slogan but this market is definitely on the downswing.
Mike:
Thanks for the link! Good to hear from you and I hope the Calgary market is treating you alright.
Anon:
The North Vancouver SFH Benchmark is down 19% from its peak in March. The REBGV SFH Benchmark is down 14% from peak. I am not sure about West Van as I do not track it in particular. They do have a tremendous amount of inventory which puts extreme pressure on prices.
Did you guys check out the new MOI chart I posted? Anyone here care to comment on the Squamish market?
Paul,
Squamish: Wowzers! The interesting thing is that in terms of prices Squamish is doing relatively well. SFH in Squamish are up 7.9% YOY, which is the single best detatched number in the November stats release.
Is your inventory for detached only or all listings? I think Squamish probably has a glut of new condos and townhomes. They have zero city planning there. It's turning into a huge sprawling strip along the highway. It's really too bad. Squamish could be an awesome town, but it seems like they don't have a spine. Walmart+sprawl, yuck.
I wonder if the Porteau Cove development is going to go ahead. I think they were going to build a mother load of residences there.
Oh yeah, and congrats on the CBC thing from me as well Paul. How long until the Board sends some thugs to break your knees for telling the sheeple the truth about real-estate?
PS: I may still have the CBC thing recorded on my PVR. I can edit out your bit and send you the video file if you'd like to archive it for your future grandkids!
"I know you don't like to see inventory numbers towards hell that why you looks really disappointed actually really, really disappointed.
21,800
18,537
tik!tik!!"
Now look at the new listings vs sales numbers. They're terrible! If you think that the inventory is dropping because the market is recovering, you have NO IDEA what is going on. You're an ingenue, an amateur, a kid who's about to get his naive fingers burned. You'll learn a lot, though!
What's happening is that a lot of people are withdrawing units from sale, hoping that the market will be better in a year's time. These people are optimists. These people are wrong. Just watch the prices!
Plus, we're in the part of the year when inventory *always* slumps. But look at the LEVEL compared with the last three years! :)
And all that inventory still being built all across town! (Slaps thigh with laughter at upcoming RE debacle.)
La la la, happy times!
"or else you would be glad to take shat at market"
I am indeed glad to take shat at market. Market is pile of shat. Market now in big crash!
See ya!
"I am indeed glad to take shat at market. Market is pile of shat. Market now in big crash!"
That's not true because you guys don't like to read truth you guys like to make incoherent gibberish for self fisting i.e. one of you estimate 13.5% drop so far but stat show only -8% that is less than realtors fee then guess who was selling in fear without sense?
Should have make some money by renting out same unit that way seller should have save $300,000 price reduction.
"Now look at the new listings vs sales numbers."
you look at the listings vs sales numbers actually you were looking at them since long time however you have never ever learned how to read them,i can help you little bit how to read them.
It doesn't matter what level of sales are processing through but what is alarming there in daily stats for any bear? that is a sell list ratio above 35%.
sell list ratio below 35 is alarm for bulls above 35 means market is coming back to life.
"Plus, we're in the part of the year when inventory *always* slumps. But look at the LEVEL compared with the last three years"
You are wrong this is not a normal time of market as what you only you not me called a cycle or you say
end of cycle,fear of crash,Speculators,fear of recession,volatile market season etc. those facts are witness that all motivated sellers has listed their listing in the market those sellers must sell their units on any prices there is no point to back up their listing,
Do you think those people should wait till foreclosures? or lose their deposit to face further consequences?.
From the inventory number which you took for shat you can replace tik tik with 18,465 then apply tik tik on the bottom of 18,465.
PAUL,
I am here till you block my IP address but i don't like to donate my freedom and tools for blogging i own a copy right for what you call gibberish i will list in ebay.
Paul -
Please, please do not delete 2010.
I'm still trying to figure out if this is real "chinglish" Or someone pretending to write in
chinglish". Something tells me it might be the real thing.
2010 - keep on bloggin!
you're hilarious.
Me smat make, like fisting !^!
(Is that good 2010?)
I suspect you're right however. There's likely to be a minor "recovery" in spring/summer that stabilizes the market for a few months before the bottom drops out again.
With all of the job losses and pre-sale defaults coming round the bend? I don't think so.
So as not to rekindle any festering personality conflicts this is my ONLY post on this matter.
Dave was asked:
At what peak to trough drop do you consider yourself wrong, (and your critics right)?
Dave replied: 20%
If we are going with benchmark SFH, that looks to be around February, give or take a month. We need another 8% drop to get there.
The 70% lower sales are a real shock and a crushing blow to this fragile market.
But no real surprise.
Anyone here care to comment on the Squamish market?
Holy sh*t. Flaky numbers with such a small sample, but holy sh*t all the same.
FEW MINUTE OF CHEER UP THEN WHAT?
FRUSTRATED?,SHOCKED?,NUMB?,NERVOUS?
Unless you decide how to return back let me call online to install consumer confidence,dailing 1-800-consumer confidence!
Ok Tsur Somerville says prices need to drop around 11 percent but we need re confidence to awake in the depressed bears,
I say that last bad news droped in day before yesterday that was usa officially in recession!
Recession news itself become a good sign for future that things will be back asap then i start counting to pile up stuff that i beleive is picking up slots to re install confidence in dead bears.
Dow is up constantly,nasdaq is up,tsx is following too close as well with slide bit back today but tomorrow?
Gas prices are fare to say but what's latest in Vancouver market?
Affordability has improved, inventory is down,i told somerville that there is no need to force buyers to get into market because sooner or later market will suck in all the bears with it's natural force.
Now only question that remain in my mind is it better to be first to get in or late? any thoughts?
2010, 2010, 2010, 2010 !!! !!! !!!
Keep on bloggin!
2010, 2010, 2010 !!!! !!! !!!
van_coffee,
No traces of chinglish in 2010's posts, IMHO. Take it easy. It's just another mad speculator or developer, a usual suspect. At least 2010 has added some noises to the blog that makes it more active.
2010 is not using "Chinglish" he/she is trying to appear Eastern European. Think Dragos trainer.
"Recession news itself become a good sign for future that things will be back asap"
Flawless reasoning there.
I marvel at your brilliance.
"sell list ratio below 35 is alarm for bulls above 35 means market is coming back to life."
What was the typical ratio, say, 18 months ago?
hi
game is going according to the book, more or less
ever seen 25 to 30000 wanting to exit at once?
all markets eventually bottom
this one is going to take a few out
Nov '07 sell/list 88%
So Nov '08 sell/list over 35% indicates ???
Hey Paul,
Long time no speak!
OK, so the Teranet - National Bank National Composite House Price Index link has brought me out of my long slumber of not posting.
I had been hoping for something like this for some time. I like that the methodology is openly available as well.
It isn't great that an independent third party isn't running it, because having a Canadian bank run it potentially could lead to various biases.
The other pitfall is that there isn't a futures market for the index (I don't think there could be one, because then it would be obligated to be run by an independant third party).
Overall, though, its a good thing.
P.S. Its funny when I read various MSM articles stating that "no one could have predicted the timing and speed of Vancouver real estate decline" etc. etc. I predicted the thing - timing and speed - and so did some others (Patriotz comes to mind).
Oh well...
Please DELETE 2010 this is real "chinglish"
This is artificial "Shanghai" intelligence here at work! :-)
The reason that he is so disconnected from you folks is that "it" is monitoring Richmond, BC, and on that geographical location RE is sooo different.
:-)
Go 2010 GO!!!!
Does anyone foresee any changes on mortgage conditions in the future? I am afraid that banks might go back to old practices and shorten the terms and increase the down payments.
WELL POSITIONED
PARLIAMENTARY FORCES:we don't give a heck to Economy and Social structure our power is most important to us so shut up unless we return back to parliament.
REALTORS:Our own properties and our own words have no value few things we like in our life is our jobs and our commissions.
Stocks return back to volatile market situation but real estate market is not a slave of realtors,governments,bears or bulls.
Real estate market is connected to necessity so it doesn't matter if you are a minister,realtor bear or bulls but we have to have a home to live as all of us know that shiller,lynch or buffet they all lives in home similar to tsur somerville.
let's get back to topic quickly slide towards "Nov '07 sell/list 88% So Nov '08 sell/list over 35% indicates ???".-Alexcnuck.
If you point towards 88% do you like to buy when homes were selling over 10%-15% over the list prices? think about it?
so question remain same again Is it better to be first or late?
homoner
-------
I bought my first place during a peak in 1994. by 2000 it was worth $70k less than what i bought it for, and by 2007 it was worth well over double and now with the current market conditions, i imagine it’s worth slightly less than 2x what i originally paid 14 years previous. markets go up, and markets go down. as long as you buy properties for the right reasons and hold them for long enough, you’ll capture all the cycles in between. now i have two places, and it’s no big deal if they decline in value. they’ll recover.
2010, 2010 !!! !!!
2010, 2010 !!! !!!
Go 2010 Go !!!
"so question remain same again Is it better to be first or late?"
Answer: it's best to be among the first following a crash.
(Counts pile of money and rubs hands.)
As Mr. Watt and others tell it, Vancouver became a much more international city after the World Exposition was held there in 1986. Asians began buying and developing property in the late 1990s. The city attracted Americans, too, many to a growing film industry.
“Vancouver better hang on tight, because this is as calm as Vancouver will be.”
Please delete 2010. And could we also avoid making pejorative assumptions about the ethnicity of bloggers as in references "Chinglish" and references to "Shanghai".
WTF, I am not Chinua I am Chinua Achebe! I am so desperate, my job is at stake, my pre-sales are skunking me! Please be patient with me and some mercy will help also......
Here is what my problem:
http://nanaimo.en.craigslist.ca/cas/944490320.html
pejorative assumptions! that is an interesting choice of words.......
Perhaps we should avoid but go straight and tell stfu!
but this is very peaceful blog, so no personal attacks right!?
I predicted the thing - timing and speed - and so did some others (Patriotz comes to mind).
Thanks for the flattery but I thought the 81-83 bust represented an upper bound for both speed and magnitude, and it's looking increasingly likely that one or both of them will be surpassed.
10 thousand homes are going to go into foreclosure over the next 12 months,be patient prices are going to fall another 30% over the next year.
2010--learn to speak a language,any language,you speak in jibberish,you make no sense,your theories are out to lunch.
The bigger they are the harder they fall or in the case BC real estate,there are NO JOBS in abundance that can support these prices,none!
Hydro prices spiking,taxes up on everything,food up,gas will go back up,transit up,education up,property taxes up,jobs gone,forestry sold down the river by Campbell.
Campbell has totally screwed BC --P3s we owe 80 billion dollars worth of P3s and energy agreements--80 billion to private entities that will employ no one!
No railway,BC rail was making over a hundred million a year,it`s gone,future energy money,gone,forestry future,can you say raw logs.
Whistler and tourism tanking,vancouver east side is is right out of a movie,criminals around evry corner and the cops,the courts,BC Liberals are nothing but a bunch of corrupt sons of bitches.
World class town,world class joke,bring on the foreclosures
But it's the "golden decade".
The 2010 Olympics will be the crowning glory of this fiasco.
The 2010 Olympics will be the crowning glory of this fiasco."
Patriotz:
I have always said that the "usual suspects" should be publically flogged at the opening ceremony.
I also believe Greenspan should be held responsible for his role, and while I do understand he is quite old, I do think 1 day in prison would have symbolic value, and serve as a reminder to future Central Bankers, that power comes with responsibility.
Tick Tock, Ti
Not a typo, we are running out Tick Tocks,
"there are NO JOBS in abundance that can support these prices,none!"
Who owns all those homes in b.c?Our interdependent economy shows that b.c. is the "best place on earth" ask Patriotz he was telling bears earlier that Ontario and Alberta those two markets are fundamentally strong compare to size of population,income,and economy since they start slashing jobs specially Ontario Patriotz has changed his target for attacks hahaha.
Btw. why don't you come up with today's employement report to tell us yes british columbia is the bpe?.
"Hydro prices spiking,taxes up on everything,food up,gas will go back up,transit up,education up,property taxes up"
Then why are you saying there is no jobs to support housing sectors?
Don't you think those jobs are going to get rich in that case you had mention?
Vancouver never had Forestry all be got here are beach and dining tables,East vancouver is awesome area have you ever lived in there commercial rocks,broadway rocks all those jerks has been removed since 2005 only hasting sucks unless alternate is not available but Robertson is working on it to replace them in atlest 200 sq.ft. room or with room mates.
Now stop all that non sense incoherent non bableee commentary if you buying a house that would be for you if you don't that would be totally opposite.
"Btw. why don't you come up with today's employement report to tell us yes british columbia is the bpe?."
2010 are you a bitter mortgage slave?
Yes won't you please tell us about the employment report, tell about the quality of employment, lots of jobs for Safeway Security personnel etc. Just how many new jobs were created?, and how does the unemployment rate tell us nothing about how many new people entered the job market and how many left the market in this province of elderly folk?
Like RE stats, the devil is in the details.
TM2,
Nothing to hide tulip we have lots of jobs unless global economy return back to full strength then more jobs ever after.
Say Thanks to B.C. and Vancouver olympics-10
2010 is just a joker. Nobody can be that "challenged".
USER NAME 2010 -
Will you be up front and let us know-
a) if you own property in BC.
b) how much property you own.
c) how much debt you're carrying in mortgage.
Just want to understand your motives better...
"SLOWER GROWTH PROJECTED BY ECONOMIC FORECAST COUNCIL
VANCOUVER – The possibility of a prolonged U.S. recession, continued turmoil in world financial markets and slowing demand for B.C. products are the primary reasons the B.C. Economic Forecast Council has lowered growth projections for the Province, Finance Minister Colin Hansen announced today."
When even the "usual suspects" say things like this, I suggest avoiding debt,and stay away from leaky condos, and MacMansions.
"When even the "usual suspects" say things like this, I suggest avoiding debt,and stay away from leaky condos, and MacMansions."
It's too late now. Just like this fool.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/
article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/18/
BATK146S1Q.DTL&feed=rss.bayarea
Tulip,
Economy growth and Jobs are two different issue's i.e.in fast growth period an Employers who got 100 employees to serve customer is able to well utilise work hour and make more money by using same work force but in slow growth his margin of profit will fall not the employees regular hours.
Story for Tulip:A lion decided to eat baby goat but there was no immidiate excuse to do that all of sudden lion goes hey baby goat aren't you the one who swear me last year then ran away? baby goat answered sir,i was not even born last year.lion goes anyway it could be your dad drats!!!!!
Tulip if your motive was to post incoherent gibberish why even you bothered asking a question on first place?
Anon 9.49 pm,
I own four different properties worth almost 2 million my debt is only $550,000 my brother own three properties but we are not selling any of them so i am not in a problem.
My motive is very much opposite to your motive bassically i don't like lazy people who sit on computer and damage the economy and real estate,I like smart people who contribute to develope clean and green society.
i don't like lazy people who sit on computer and damage the economy and real estate,
But I thought only people like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke could do things like that.
Anonymous said...
Tulip,
"jfughjdjgji89876R##GkjfifyQE@#DvvchdxxhgjhjnnnvvhfhhfDGeFfhhkgliikkik8888888888888***JJJJJjJJJJKHOEOLJL;PINBCHDJ6HJ.>>NM,,XXWW11222"
Yes I agree, an elephant is like a tree.
I would like to hear opinions on the following scenario. Perhaps a similar scenario played out during the collapse in the early 80's.
There is an area in Ladner where a developer built roughly 30 upper scale homes, ranging from the high 700's to 1 mill. The first phase had completions starting 3 years back, which all sold. There are about 6 houses to be completed in the short term.
The land for phase 2 has been cleared and zoned. One foundation has been poured. Phase 2 looks to be zoned for another 20-30 homes.
Back to phase 1. 4 houses that were completed during the summer have been on the market since completion, with minor price drops, and again 6 more houses will come on line within a month or 2.
Now, I am unsure who the developer is, but assume it is a larger, well financed company. So my question is, how much do you believe the developer will drop the prices by, when things get bad? I have prepared a very rough estimate of how much I believe it cost to build each house at roughly 400-450k, so they are making a substantial margin at the current price.
Will the developer be stubborn (has been to date) and not drop prices for a long time? At some point current economic realities must set in, and the costs to hold vacant properties will add up, causing downward pressure. However, it would appear that a large developer would be better positioned to withstand the downturn. That said, they are not in the business of holding 10 empty houses. Could you envision a scenario where they will be forced to sell at or near cost, if the market keeps heading the way it has?
who sit on computer and damage the economy and real estate
Real Estate prices dropping in value don't hurt the economy. And, arguably, over-valued Real Estate can do a lot of damage to the the economy. Families with average incomes of $75,000/year paying $2500 - $3000 per month to housing cost will inevitably mean they save nothing for retirement and pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more than they have to, to a bank.
I have a hard time believing that you really think Real Estate should inevitably and always increase at a rate far exceeding nominal salary increases.
What is clear is that you don't really care about the economy or for Real Estate... you care for protecting and pumping your investments (If I owned 4 properties, I'd be trying to pump Real Estate all to hell too) to avoid the large paper losses that are inevitably coming.
Sudcouver,be patient,prices will fall by at least 30%
Pay no attention to 2010 he has been drinking the koolaid!
We have just started the recession,it may turn into a depression,everyone borrowed on equity,everyone,that money will have to be paid back,margin calls,sellers are still in the stubborn stage,just wait until the thousands of foreclosures hit the market!
The banks want their money back and employment insurance can`t pay mortgages,be patient,pick your price,even builders will be forced to sell at cost or even a loss!
Now, I am unsure who the developer is, but assume it is a larger, well financed company. So my question is, how much do you believe the developer will drop the prices by, when things get bad?
Sudcouver, the developer will hold on for a while, but eventurally they will auction them off with starting bids @ 159k, it happened in the Seattle area this weekend.
"But I thought only people like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke could do things like that."
Patriotz,
have you ever complete any application where a portion of application state "for office use only"I don't know why greenspan ask for public apology but reason for collapse over there are different,I am 100% sure Greenspan,Bernanke,and Henry Paulson all of them are pretty much stand like institute chracters only bad things about institute characters are that they don't really get into counter argument with public because they are public servents you can only read the truth later in life you will find it somewhere for sure.
user 2010 is now anonymous
It doesn't matter if user is anonymous or anonymous is user name but our society start to look clean and green on every single web page.
Buy now and say good bye to three year of false (bearish)speculation which did not show up on anecdotal table also say good bye to prolonged recession and depression dieseases.
all right buy your dream home and enjoy your life wish you all the best.
"Buy now and say good bye to three year of false (bearish)speculation which did not show up on anecdotal table also say good bye to prolonged recession and depression dieseases."
Do you read the newspapers? I recommend them as a valuable source of information about what goes on in the world. Many of them have sections with names such as "business", "money" or "finance". These often contain stories written by journalists about micro and macro trends in business and finance. You might be interested to learn about what has been going on for the last eighteen months, and why Vancouver real estate not now best lucky investment for increased joy wealth.
Best wishes.
"Don't you think those jobs are going to get rich in that case you had mention?"
Ha ha ha ha ha! Yeah, rising food prices and property taxes are going to lead to people becoming rich in BC! Oh, mercy! (Wipes tear from eye.)
Good lord, you're an economic incompetent! I had no idea you knew so little. It explains so much...
Patriotz,
Could you please correct your friends because i am going to work.Hey anon's peoples, talking further to you in this critical time would be un fair to you i feel like you guys don't have that much time left so please hurry up!
We have all the time in the world
Time enough for life
To unfold
All the precious things
Love has in store
We have all the love in the world
If that's all we have
You will find
We need nothing more
They killed the Pope. Be vigilant Paulb!
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