North Vancouver Homes: June month end sales and inventory numbers

Monday, June 30, 2008

June month end sales and inventory numbers

The Spring selling season has come to an end, and it appears a dramatic change in our local real estate climate has occurred. No longer a sellers market, the terms "balanced market" and "buyers market" are now common place among home buyers and sellers. Now more than ever when selling a home it is important to be competitively priced amongst the competition and market your home from a variety of different angles.

Some numbers:

Sales are down a startling 41% compared with June 2007. This will make some headlines this week.

We started 2008 with slightly less inventory than 2007.We are currently up 53% over last year, and 80% over May 30th 2006. North Vancouver inventory is up over 113% compared to June 07.

Some colleagues of mine have noticed an increase in sales activity this last week. Lets see if the market begins to handle the increase in inventory.

What are you seeing out there? Keep on posting!

Here are some visuals:

Sales -41%

Total Listings +53%- Looks like the rapid inventory growth might be winding down.

Van West +76%

Van East +43%

North Van +113%

West Van +57%

Inventory Charts here: INVENTORY

216 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 216 Newer› Newest»

M- said...: Astounding. Sales down 41%. Wow.

...Looking at your sales chart, it looks like in the last year, the only months with worse sales were:

December '07 and January '08. The two crappiest months of the year.

...And this June had sales in their territory. Ouch.; June 30, 2008 7:17 PM
Stillooking said...: 41% drop yoy was a lot more than I expected. Now all we need are prices to trend lower and I'm one happy prospective buyer....; June 30, 2008 7:58 PM
freako said...: July should be really interesting. Sales generally drop between June and July. Don't count on many price drops just yet. And there is no doubt that 20K will come and go during July.; June 30, 2008 9:02 PM
Jin said...: This post has been removed by the author.; June 30, 2008 9:02 PM
greely said...: I work in Burnaby and have been watching dozens of the same houses on sale for one hell of a long time. Every week a couple more add the "price reduced" tag to their sign to entice viewers. I don't know what that means, but I can guess.; June 30, 2008 9:23 PM
jesse said...: This market surprised me on the way up. Why would it be any different on the way down? I thought at least June would be the same as May in terms of sales.

MOI at 7.7 in freaking June. It will only be worse in July and August. No way inventory goes much lower through the summer and sales are usually slow. Look for MOI to be close to double digits. Wow.; June 30, 2008 9:25 PM
freako said...: Look for MOI to be close to double digits. Wow.

Yeah, I think we will hit it in July or August. If we have say 2,200 sales, listings need to get to 20,000 for 10 MOI. That could happen.; June 30, 2008 9:30 PM
jesse said...: I think we will see some pressure on prices over the summer. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of sales were financed with bridge loans. There have to be more than a few hot to trot sellers out there.

You have to wonder: investors aside, where are all these homeowners that are trying to sell moving to?; June 30, 2008 10:04 PM
Michael said...: 13 SFH sales! Crazy!

With 8113 SFH listings on the market,you had a 0.16% chance of getting your home sold.

The buyers' strike is on!; June 30, 2008 10:47 PM
exx said...: Thanks as always Paul. Interesting numbers for the day. I wonder if we'll start seeing more 0% over list days, course there were only 29 condo sales today but still...; June 30, 2008 10:55 PM
Paul said...: Today the board called it quits at 5pm. Like Fridays.; June 30, 2008 11:04 PM
Michael said...: I love how they always leave early on the last day of the month. I suppose the logic goes like this: employees get a chance to go home early, and the end of month numbers that get written up in the media look slightly better than they actually should. So its a win-win!

I'm sure we had a lot more listings then showed up today. But they will be added eventually.

How cheeky!

Paul, I was giving some thought to the conundrum from last month -- where the stated total inventory as you had listed was significantly less than in the media publications. Perhaps an explanation is that they use a different definition of "active" listings. Perhaps listings that have been on the market for only a few months get categorized as "inactive".

Of course, in our current predicament with ridiculously low S/L's, we are seeing many more listings not selling, and thus making themselves unintentionally "inactive".

I don't know, just a thought. I could be totally off.; June 30, 2008 11:17 PM
Paul said...: Hi Michael,

I believe the number in the FV is off due to the commercial MLS listings. I only count residential.

Rob C has a REBGV count on his site which is also higher than mine. I added the commercial MLS listings to the REBGV residential total and the number matched exactly.

Regardless my count is the total number of residential properties listed on MLS.; July 1, 2008 8:48 AM
M- said...: Michael, I remember at the beginning of the month, Paul's numbers showed active listings up 40%, but the REBGV press release showed listings up 20%. Later in the month, the press started reporting listings as being up 40%.

So why the early discrepancy between the REBGV's 20% and Paul's 40%?

Simple. The REBGV didn't quote "active listings". Rather, they just referred to "listings" and published the number of "new listings" compared to a year earlier, thus they ignored all the built-up inventory that had failed to sell in the last few months.; July 1, 2008 10:55 AM
M- said...: Hey Paul, do you have any stats to indicate what the previous record-high inventory was in the REBGV?; July 1, 2008 11:17 AM
the pope said...: This post has been removed by the author.; July 1, 2008 2:08 PM
the pope said...: What are you seeing out there?

Hey! Thats my FFFA line - You stole that sentence from me!

..Just kidding. Thanks for tracking and sharing these stats Paul, I've just posted a link from Vancouvercondo.info to this post. Dramatic changes afoot!

I'd like to echo the request from M- if its not too difficult can you tell us how todays inventory levels relate to historical listings beyond the last five years?; July 1, 2008 2:12 PM
Paul said...: I have not been able to track down that stat. I will keep digging.; July 1, 2008 3:36 PM
exx said...: Paul, any eta on Coquitlam & Port Moody graphs? Thanks.; July 1, 2008 4:33 PM
AnneW said...: Anecdotally, I have 2 friends trying to sell properties right now and feeling very frustrated. One is a small cheap unit downtown, the other is a very high-end large unit. Multiple showings, open houses, staging, the whole 9 yards, and no nibbles yet. The only factor left to change is price... and so the pressure is on.; July 1, 2008 5:10 PM
Octagonian said...: On-the-ground reports routinely tell of SIGNIFICANT price reductions in West Van. These numbers ARE already impacting prices. West and North Van are tarpits -- no way out for anybody who bought after '05...; July 1, 2008 5:21 PM
Jeff said...: "The only factor left to change is price"
That is the single most important variable the seller can change to get their property sold.
It really is simple to sell in this market... leave out the greed.; July 1, 2008 5:30 PM
Paul said...: Inventory charts are up!; July 1, 2008 6:05 PM
AnneW said...: Ah, greed. Also see: denial.; July 1, 2008 7:13 PM
Michael said...: Hey M-,

I hear what you are saying about using "new listings" versus total inventory. I've been seeing that little trick being used for months now, and I find it really funny. I can't believe people can be fooled so easily!

But even beyond that number, Paul's total inventory numbers have come in considerably higher than what has been reported. I do think it is because Paul uses all MLS listings, whereas the media stats weed out "inactive" listings.

Of course, Paul's method is significantly more accurate from a study design perspective because it avoids various types of bias that can occur in defining "active" vs. "inactive". Also, if your place isn't selling for months, that's an important piece of data. Why exclude that?

I think I know why... :-); July 1, 2008 11:31 PM
freako said...: REBGV monthly reports are archived back to March 99. You may to skim a bit, but most of the data is there.

http://tinyurl.com/44wq9n; July 2, 2008 12:31 AM
patriotz said...: Multiple showings, open houses, staging, the whole 9 yards, and no nibbles yet. The only factor left to change is price... and so the pressure is on.

What about the actors?
Or the St. Joseph statue?
The "free" car?

They can't just GIVE it away you know!; July 2, 2008 5:07 AM
jesse said...: From freako's link:
Sales were 19K for all of '98, just to give a bit of a perspective on how low sales can go. Current '08 sales are 17K YTD. Couldn't find any data on monthly inventory.

We have been hearing new reports with the headline "lowest on record" in other countries. If you think Canada (or Vancouver) will follow this trend, MOI is going to need a semilog scale ;); July 2, 2008 10:31 AM
BobbyBear said...: Going to get very interesting to say the least.

Keep up the great work, Paul.; July 2, 2008 7:16 PM
Paul said...: Fraser Valley: 10497

Listings:195
Price Changes:62
Sales:60
S/L Ratio: 31%

REBGV Numbers looking bullish today.; July 2, 2008 8:22 PM
AnneW said...: Speaking of the St. Joseph statues, I know a realtor who uses them!

But what's this about actors? Like to come to the open house and talk about offer-making? And how do I get myself hired as one?; July 2, 2008 8:44 PM
Anonymous said...: REBGV Numbers looking bullish today.

Yeah. It's going to be interesting to watch sales going off the charts again. Fortunately, it won't happen in my lifetime.; July 3, 2008 12:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey Paul, is that a typo in your daily listings? I find it hard to believe that the total went from 19,342 on June 30th to 18,516 on July 2nd.; July 3, 2008 1:04 AM
Anonymous said...: Looks like
**847**
cancelled listings yesterday!!!

For comparison, there were only
404 on May 1, 2008

Paul or Jeff--any idea how this compares with July 1, 2007?

Whybuywhenucanrent'til'13?
**Forecasting a 50% drop in Van area RE by 2012!!**; July 3, 2008 1:55 AM
Dave said...: Freako, getting worried about our bet yet?

We are only a week in and already I am ahead.; July 3, 2008 7:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Don't feed the troll.; July 3, 2008 10:10 AM
Drachen said...: Dave

They're called expirations Dave. Inventory drops about 5% at the end of every month. But then you know that, that's why you wanted the extra day on your bet.; July 3, 2008 10:19 AM
Damien said...: mmmhhmm...

http://www.cbc.ca/
consumer/story/
2008/07/02/
housing.html; July 3, 2008 10:24 AM
Paul said...: Reading the stats release. Sales down 42.9% and prices down across all categories. Pretty brutal stats release overall.I will tell you more later...; July 3, 2008 5:08 PM
seeker said...: thanks Paul...been waiting to see those numbers.

I expect to see some news headlines about the market.; July 3, 2008 6:02 PM
Stillooking said...: Prices down all across the board.....the snowball is finally rolling on its own.; July 3, 2008 6:13 PM
freako said...: We are only a week in and already I am ahead.

Not one bit, scoundrel. We will hit 20K this month, and will never look back.; July 3, 2008 9:40 PM
freako said...: Oh, and Dave, watch these expirations come right back on over the next few days.; July 3, 2008 9:41 PM
Dwain said...: Thank God I chose to rent - I'm in Port Moody and haven't seen a sold sign since May.

Plus I got a 900K+ house for 3K/month.

I can see the panic in the realtor's eyes when I tell them I can't see an upside of buying.

This market really resembles my experience in the Miami market. I chose to hold and rent out or home.

Condos go first, then homes follow fast when the buyers all realize they can't win.; July 3, 2008 9:42 PM
patriotz said...: Plus I got a 900K+ house for 3K/month.

300+ multiple in Port Moody.

Move along folks, nothing to see here.; July 4, 2008 12:32 AM
VancouverGuy said...: A few choice bear changes from May to June benchmarks:

North Van Detached: -3.4%
PoCo Detached: -2.7%
West Van Detached: -4.8%
PoMo Attached: -4.0%
Vancouver East Detached: -2.7%
Vancouver West Detached: -3.1%
North Van Apartment: -4.0%; July 4, 2008 1:45 AM
Dave said...: Not one bit, scoundrel. We will hit 20K this month, and will never look back..

Scoundrel? Lighten up. I was just having a little fun with you. Obviously, the listings are going to come back.; July 4, 2008 7:11 AM
Anonymous said...: vancouverguy,

where did u get those numbers from ?; July 4, 2008 8:11 AM
Anonymous said...: hi paul

how was fv yesterday? thanks; July 4, 2008 8:48 AM
VancouverGuy said...: Those are the numbers from the Real Estate Board paper they release each month. I just manually plugged the May, May last three months average, and June numbers into excel and picked out a few numbers to show you guys.; July 4, 2008 1:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Right on VG, great analysis....

July/August should see even larger yoy sales volume declines and lower prices. I would expect the YoY prices to go negative early Fall. Anybody think otherwise?; July 4, 2008 1:42 PM
Paul said...: Your numbers are bang on VG. Thanks saves me putting something like that together :)

I forgot the FV. I will do a 2 day combo tonight I promise!; July 4, 2008 2:34 PM
White Bear said...: After doing a bit of research in zillow.com, I questioned whether a housing downturn will have any effect on those high-end West side houses.

Check out this listing in WA, near Medena, a prestigious area in Seattle.
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=48964105

Recently sold for 5.2M for 5k sq.feet on a 18k lot.; July 4, 2008 2:48 PM
White Bear said...: Also, Check out the sale history.

Sale History
04/24/2008: $5,201,750
04/12/2005: $1,300,000 *

Housing triped in 3 years and there is still buyer willing to pay such a price amid the worst housing disaster in US history.

Sigh...; July 4, 2008 3:09 PM
frank said...: Well White Bear no one said it was going to be a rose garden.

Washington has not collapsed neither has San Francisco, but San Diego and Miami and Vegas and Pheonix have.

Get over it!; July 4, 2008 3:34 PM
Anonymous said...: How do the numbers look today so far? Give it to me.

Romeo Jordan; July 4, 2008 6:10 PM
Paul said...: 2 day Fraser Valley update:10629

Listings 536
Price Changes 362
Sales 150
S/L Ratio 28%; July 4, 2008 6:32 PM
patriotz said...: I questioned whether a housing downturn will have any effect on those high-end West side houses.

Prices are just as out of whack with rents and incomes on the West Side as anywhere else, and they are going to have to come down just as much (% wise) as anywhere else.

That happened in in the early 80's - a 45% drop - and will happen again.

Note also that the area showing the largest surge in inventory, and reported drops in asking prices, is West Vancouver. The high end is not immune.; July 4, 2008 8:03 PM
VancouverGuy said...: Is there an easy way for me to post spreadsheets and other docs I work on that other people might like? In addition to things like monthly price data, I have a decent ownership model that I built on the basis of equity returns earned by long-term owners under different scenarios. Just don't have a great way of putting the stuff up for people to access.; July 4, 2008 8:45 PM
VancouverGuy said...: http://pissmeoffvancouver.blogspot.com/2008/07/house-prices.html

There you go. If anyone wants the raw data just drop me a comment.; July 4, 2008 8:55 PM
macho slob said...: Thanks VG,

Those monthly price drops are HUGE!
The 7 categories average out to 3.53%, and if that rate of decline coninued for 12 months, that would would be result in a 42.34% drop.

Holy $hit!; July 4, 2008 9:13 PM
VancouverGuy said...: You guys will love the April numbers even more :)

West Van tanked!

http://pissmeoffvancouver.blogspot.com/2008/07/and-from-april.html; July 4, 2008 9:16 PM
VancouverGuy said...: If I add anything else I'll show the annualized figure for each of the numbers, but the the West Van price drop is 47% annualized based on April-June. But who knows...; July 4, 2008 9:18 PM
N2V said...: Vancouverguy,

Great numbers! Thank you.
simple question:

what does the "May last 3 months" represent? (I am thinking either average for May of last three years, or average for Mar/Apr/May); July 4, 2008 11:07 PM
freako said...: I would expect the YoY prices to go negative early Fall. Anybody think otherwise?

I would expect maybe 1% down in July, another in August, then maybe a little more for September/October. In such a case, YOY neg would occur October or November.; July 4, 2008 11:09 PM
vk said...: @ Vancouverguy July 4, 2008 8:45 PM

Is there an easy way for me to post spreadsheets and other docs I work on that other people might like? In addition to things like monthly price data, I have a decent ownership model that I built on the basis of equity returns earned by long-term owners under different scenarios. Just don't have a great way of putting the stuff up for people to access.

try : docs.google.com

Create and share your work online

Create, edit and upload quickly
Import your existing documents, spreadsheets and presentations, or create new ones from scratch.

Access and edit from anywhere
All you need is a Web browser. Your documents are stored securely online.

Share changes in real time
Invite people to your documents and make changes together, at the same time.

It's free -- you don't pay a nickel; July 4, 2008 11:30 PM
Anonymous said...: What are your opinions, will we see all those expired listings bounce back to the market?; July 4, 2008 11:33 PM
VancouverGuy said...: N2V,

The three months average represents what the Real Estate Board publishes as "3 MONTH AVG BENCHMARK PRICE".

So yeah, last three months. I could have put L3M, but I don't think many would have got that.; July 5, 2008 1:00 AM
Anonymous said...: How are things looking this weekend jeff/paul?; July 5, 2008 3:37 PM
Paul said...: partly cloudy with sunny breaks ;)

No listings etc. Should not have any overflow this time of year. Weeklies are posted.; July 6, 2008 10:24 PM
Coco said...: Banks/credit unions predicting BOC will raise interest rates by October to battle rising inflation. That interest rates will rise 100 basis points and be up to 200 basis points higher than today in 2009.

Canadian banks are having trouble selling their own commercial backed paper which includes Canadian mortgages, looking for investors in the U.S.

Subprime losses are about 16% of Canadian banks income now, banks say if that the losses get worse it can cut into loan availability.

Interesting times.; July 7, 2008 8:00 PM
Paul said...: I don't see things getting better short term. I just posted the monthlies and the sell/list ratio has been declining since March in all housing types.; July 7, 2008 9:02 PM
Anonymous said...: paul, fv numbers please.; July 7, 2008 10:27 PM
VancouverGuy said...: 5 day trailing MOI:

Rises from 5.7 to 6.6 in NV
Rises from 7.2 to 8.7 in GV; July 8, 2008 12:08 AM
exx said...: Hey Paul, if you wouldn't mind could you tell me how much V713297 was sold for? Thanks.; July 8, 2008 10:26 AM
exx said...: nm on the above request, I found the property sheet. Sold for the asking price. Not too surprising, it was priced well.; July 8, 2008 10:34 AM
exx said...: Paul, I found these stats on another realtor's page. Are these numbers accurate?

The "new construction" sector of the real estate market is over-supplied with available inventory. In fact, with only 222 sales reported last month and 3,125 current listings for a 7.1% sales to active listings ratio, or 14 months of supply, this sector of the market is seriously under performing.; July 8, 2008 2:31 PM
Paul said...: If we keep adding listings until
9pm or 10pm we may have a record listing day.

PB; July 8, 2008 6:31 PM
Paul said...: Wow Exx, I would expect that number to grow as more buildings complete and get listed.; July 8, 2008 6:42 PM
Anonymous said...: paul, please feed smeagols with FV numbers. Pls, we beg.; July 8, 2008 6:43 PM
Paul said...: How could I say no to Smeagol. Lol!

FV last 2 days:

Inventory 10695
Listings 343
Price changes 207
Sales 173
S/L Ratio 50%

The REBGV has ground to a halt, so I think we will dodge a huge listing count. I hope my new house pops up soon. It's a hot one. Believe it or not! :); July 8, 2008 7:41 PM
Paul said...: 400 listings today...
Re-lists? Or bad press?; July 8, 2008 10:20 PM
M- said...: Lots and lots of expiries, too...; July 8, 2008 10:21 PM
Strataman said...: Terminations,cancellations, expiries? Or seller confusion and disbelief? :-) Thanks for the numbers Paul!; July 8, 2008 10:52 PM
Anonymous said...: "400 listings today...
Re-lists? Or bad press?"

Alot of listings indeed. Not a small number of sales either mind you..; July 9, 2008 2:57 AM
Drachen said...: For those who missed it, CMHC has finally made a move that makes sense. They're no longer guaranteeing 40 year or zero down mortgages. Minimum is now 35 years and 5%.

It's not a huge change but it's a step. This ought to cut the rate of sales and may even effect some of the "purchases" listed over the past week or so.; July 9, 2008 3:20 PM
Anonymous said...: CMHC decesion will take effect on Oct 15. It can actually increase the market activity between now and Oct. 15. It will impact the lower end properties or condos more than higher end SFH.; July 9, 2008 4:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Do you know if gov decision on loan insurance include Genworth as well?; July 9, 2008 4:58 PM
Anonymous said...: yes, it does.; July 9, 2008 6:13 PM
exx said...: It will be interesting to see how this affects the market. I think both inventory and sales will increase at the same rate. Sales obviously due to the remaining fools that rush in to make sure they don't lose out on this 'limited time offer'. But then, wouldn't inventory also increase as a result of speculators making sure that they can unload their units before a bunch of these fools are priced out?; July 9, 2008 6:18 PM
Paul said...: Bingo, I would expect to see both Exx. The sales uptick may be more muted due to common sense ;); July 9, 2008 6:44 PM
Anonymous said...: Except common sense didn't seem to play much of a role these past 5 years.; July 9, 2008 6:50 PM
Paul said...: FV:10722
List:162
Price changes: 163
Sales:59
S/L: 36%

REBGV for 10ish; July 9, 2008 9:22 PM
fish10 said...: This post has been removed by the author.; July 9, 2008 10:18 PM
fish10 said...: Quite the day for us bears.

FV- it used to be more price changes than sales, now it's more price changes than listings.

GV- over 19,000 again- it took 9 days. 20% sales/list!

Thanks for the numbers Paul.; July 9, 2008 10:19 PM
Asun said...: Seems like listings aren't slowing down in July like it did in years past. Probably Dave is sweating a bit now? :); July 9, 2008 10:21 PM
Paul said...: We have had just under 800 Listings in 2 days. These numbers are the highest we have for a while. Surprising for July.; July 10, 2008 8:11 AM
Michael said...: 800 listings in 2 days. Wow.

The screaming headlines in the Vancouver Sun today that the housing market is toast aren't going to help the situation either.

Bring on the listings deluge! Time to invest in the company that produces the for sale signs :-); July 10, 2008 9:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Paul - how much to you guesstimate benchmark prices will fall this month??? thanks.

Romeo Jordan, give it to me now.; July 10, 2008 9:12 AM
Paul said...: 2% ? It's really anyones guess.; July 10, 2008 10:21 AM
Stillooking said...: Paul, what are your thoughts of a possible listing frenzy before Oct 15th? ie. Get out before the FTBs disappear.; July 10, 2008 1:34 PM
observer said...: Another reason which may have precipitated the GoC/CMHC change on mortgage requirements is if the market gets nasty like the US with widespread defaults, the CMHC would potentially be on the hook for compensating lenders for bad loans.; July 10, 2008 2:22 PM
Anonymous said...: observer,

Yah, no kidding. The CMHC has no business existing to begin with -- there is no defensible reason for why a public entity should be used to insure private interests.; July 10, 2008 2:42 PM
observer said...: If one were nice, one could say that CMHC tried to make housing more affordable by allowing 40 year 0 down mortgages, but the market said this ain't right, so I'm just going to just going to jack up housing prices.

If one were no so nice, one could say the CMHC was looking after their own bottom line and was working with the mortgage industry to take an advantage of an opportunity to increase their profits during the housing boom.

There may be a place for an entity like the CMHC if it were allowing responsible contributing members of society to own their homes.

But their actions recently do not support this (just look at how they recently allowed insurance for investment purposes).

It would probably serve the public good if the GofC were to reevaluate the mandate of CMHC and make any necessary adjustments.; July 10, 2008 3:07 PM
Paul said...: FV numbers

List:187
Price changes:135
Sales:80
S/L Ratio: 43%

Another large REBGV listing day for July. Details for 10pm.; July 10, 2008 8:55 PM
freako said...: Paul - how much to you guesstimate benchmark prices will fall this month??? thanks.

I don't know how Paul sees it, but I think we will see go to about 1%, the monthly drops will pick up a fraction of a percent, perhaps peaking or slowing at 2.5%. Depending on how the market reacts to the unambigous realization that the market is toast it can go higher from there, perhaps 3-4% for the a month or two. But most of the damage will come via 2% or so price drops. Month in and month out. Adds up quickly though, I tell ya. A couple of years of that and my 45% drop has been achieved.; July 10, 2008 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Re: CMHC
...there is no defensible reason for why a public entity should be used to insure private interests.

Sure, there is. It's the 4 P's of Corporatism: Private Profit, Public Pays.

Canadians are used to being bled dry and often defend their role as beaten-down government mules.

It cracks me up that people even wonder ... wow, if this all goes to hell, will the taxpayer be on the hook? Well Duh.; July 10, 2008 9:01 PM
Anonymous said...: It would probably serve the public good if the GofC were to reevaluate the mandate of CMHC and make any necessary adjustments.

Barn Door. Horses Gone. Too Late.; July 10, 2008 9:05 PM
Anonymous said...: paul, inventory for FV please. I think its not fair that you give FV step motherly treatment :-(. hehehehe; July 10, 2008 10:31 PM
exx said...: Loving these numbers, thanks Paul.; July 10, 2008 10:36 PM
exx said...: Anonymous, Paul already posted the FV numbers. Scroll up to his last post.; July 10, 2008 10:38 PM
Anonymous said...: yeah, but the total inventory is missing. sob sob sob; July 10, 2008 10:45 PM
jesse said...: So much for the summer doldrums. Listings are going to be higher by July ME than June. I'm enjoying putting the fear of God into my friends with the 1-2 punch of the CMHC leashing and the leaky condos. I didn't think I'd enjoy it but... I so do.; July 11, 2008 10:29 AM
Drachen said...: Anonymous

"Barn Door. Horses Gone. Too Late."

That's a stupid thing to say. To follow your analogy the horses may be gone but they will be replaced. It would be just stupid to leave the doors open so the replacements run away too.; July 11, 2008 12:29 PM
jesse said...: "To follow your analogy the horses may be gone but they will be replaced."

All the greater fool horses got through the doors and most will starve to death on the prairie. The ones that didn't make it out of the barn at least will be fed during the winter.; July 11, 2008 1:45 PM
Anonymous said...: "Listings are going to be higher by July ME than June." -Jesse

Can you clarify this for me? I'm not sure what you mean.; July 11, 2008 2:33 PM
Drachen said...: What's not to understand anon?

He's saying that by the end of July total listings will be higher than they were at the end of June.; July 11, 2008 4:10 PM
Anonymous said...: It was the ME part that I didn't get. Ah! "Month End". Got it.

Perhaps people shouldn't ne so, shall we say, "esoteric"...; July 11, 2008 4:47 PM
exx said...: I wonder if the GVREB is out early today...; July 11, 2008 6:54 PM
M- said...: Looks like a pretty quiet day-- not many listings, not many sales. I wonder if some staff were on vacation?; July 11, 2008 10:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Holy Cow, IndyMac Collapsed . Fun times ahead.; July 12, 2008 12:09 AM
Paul said...: FV numbers

Inventory:10865
Listings: 189
Price changes:67
Sales:42
S/L Ratio:22%; July 12, 2008 10:04 AM
Paul said...: M- Most of the last many weeks the board closed about 5pm on Friday. That's why the lower counts.; July 12, 2008 10:05 AM
jesse said...: anon, sorry for the jargon. (slaps wrist). ME = Month End; July 12, 2008 10:07 AM
VancouverGuy said...: Pretty much exactly one year of inventory based on yesterday's sales in the Fraser Valley. Ouch.; July 12, 2008 12:17 PM
alexcanuck said...: No numbers? No blog post? Comments gone dead? Surely you're not run off your feet with showings and offer writing! Everything OK?; July 14, 2008 7:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Paul - what do you think prices will do for July (benchmarks) - up? flat? Down?

thanks.; July 14, 2008 11:12 AM
Paul said...: The huge power outage in Vancouver has closed down the MLX for most of the day. Hopefully we will still get some numbers for later tonight.; July 14, 2008 3:14 PM
Stillooking said...: So I've been looking for a SFH in NVan for a couple of months. Nothing yet that interests me. On a whim, I did a search in WVan on realtor.ca. In the past, there was nothing available there in my price range and I expected much the same. Surprise, surprise, a few red dots popped up on the map. Yes, my friends, the once unaffordable and unattainable is within reach.; July 14, 2008 3:45 PM
Anonymous said...: paul fv numbers pls; July 14, 2008 10:14 PM
Paul said...: Oops. Sorry Canadian it always slips my mind.

FV:10903
List 94
Price change 26
Sales 25
S/L Ratio 27%; July 14, 2008 10:33 PM
exx said...: Did the FVREB servers go out in the power outage too? :D; July 14, 2008 10:36 PM
Paul said...: no kidding eh?; July 14, 2008 10:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Paul,

Has the Hydro debacle downtown impacted the daily numbers again?; July 15, 2008 5:49 PM
Paul said...: Yes and no. The board is up and running full throttle today but we are seeing fewer sales due to the board can catching up on the listings. If your a bear you will enjoy tonights post... :0; July 15, 2008 6:08 PM
exx said...: I can't remember the last time seeing the daily numbers hasn't filled me with joy. Extra joy is welcome.; July 15, 2008 7:00 PM
Paul said...: FV:10925
L: 190
PC: 165
S: 102
SLR: 54%

Code for vets only ;); July 15, 2008 8:54 PM
Anonymous said...: A sizeable increase in the S/L ?; July 15, 2008 9:22 PM
johnnyrent said...: Paul

12% and 10%? The sales/listing ratio must be significantly influenced by the power outage. In otherwords, for whatever reason the REBGV has been able to input more listings than they have sales. Yes?; July 15, 2008 9:35 PM
RentingSucks said...: Listings are likely prioritized over sales. Marking things as sold is more of an informational thing. Worst case is that someone might try and buy a house that's already sold. If a house hasn't been listed it can't be sold which is the whole point of real estate agents and their ilk :-).; July 15, 2008 9:54 PM
RentingSucks said...: This post has been removed by the author.; July 15, 2008 9:54 PM
Damien said...: I for one love tonight's numbers :); July 15, 2008 11:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Paul - think we'll crack 20,000 this week?

How much do you guess benchmarks fall this month?

Appreciate your straight forward comments, yours and Jeff's are a welcome relief to the spin of most realtors.; July 16, 2008 11:12 AM
Anonymous said...: "yours and Jeff's are a welcome relief to the spin of most realtors."

Could not agree more. I kinda feel guilty these days to issue blanket statements for realtors.; July 16, 2008 2:14 PM
Paul said...: I don't know if we will crack 20k this week. We all watch the same numbers daily. It's anyones guess. Maybe... 19,999? ;)

Regarding price I would GUESS we see the benchmarks edge down 2-3%. Who knows dude.; July 16, 2008 2:33 PM
Paul said...: It's gonna be a heavy day for listings. Really tough to be a bull in this market. Are there any out there?; July 16, 2008 5:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Current blip arising from DT underground substation is a clear sign.
We are finally catching up with NY City in smokes and fire.

ecstatic bull BSE; July 16, 2008 7:37 PM
Anonymous said...: The Crossing development in abbotsford burnt to the ground last night. this was accross the road from the cancelled brio project. i want re to fall so my kids can afford a home but i don't want it coming to this. that was not a good area of town to begin with, now with two failed projects...

police were investigating today, they suspect arson.

one family lost their home, thank God no one was hurt.

this has gone way too far.

rant off

J6P; July 16, 2008 8:18 PM
Paul said...: FV:10947
Listings:169
Price Changes:123
Sales:43
Sell/List ratio:25%; July 16, 2008 8:49 PM
Michael said...: Hmmmm.... that power outage seems to have lasted a really long time :-); July 16, 2008 10:08 PM
Paul said...: 404 Listings and 77 sales. Lots of mid month cancellations or the inventory would have really climbed today.; July 16, 2008 10:15 PM
Anonymous said...: This market is toast. Where is Dave to cheerlead now that the numbers look horrendous?

Dave are you so confident we won't hit 20K this month? SPEAK OUT DAVE!; July 16, 2008 11:56 PM
Paul said...: Large day so far for sales. We may crack a 50% S/L!; July 17, 2008 4:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Thanks Paul, keep us updated as the evening progresses pls....could you see prices fall 5% this months?; July 17, 2008 5:12 PM
Dave said...: Dave are you so confident we won't hit 20K this month? SPEAK OUT DAVE!

We will likely break 20k sometime next week. I predict the numbers will peak in the next 3 or 4 weeks and then start to tail off.; July 17, 2008 8:04 PM
macho slob said...: I think listings will be rather slow for next 3 or 4 weeks, and surge in late summer to try and sell before winter. We're bound to get a bit of a listing panic when the MSM reports YOY price drops for August.; July 17, 2008 8:37 PM
N2V said...: wow. Been a while since the last 60%+ S/L. Note however that the average S/L of today and yesterday is still only at 35%...; July 17, 2008 10:24 PM
N2V said...: as per my previous post, ... thats for SFH only.; July 17, 2008 10:25 PM
exx said...: Paul, your condo sales & listings figure for today states 154 for both, but a sell list of 70%. Should that be 107 sales?

Either way, the sales numbers were bound to catch up from the power outage mess. We better hit 20K this month, enough teasing!; July 17, 2008 10:25 PM
Anonymous said...: I am not sure whats up with the condo S/L today??

Should that be 100% S/L?; July 17, 2008 10:27 PM
Paul said...: Thanks Exx, I was flying through the numbers tonight. It's 219 listings.; July 17, 2008 10:30 PM
Anonymous said...: paul, fv pls; July 17, 2008 10:34 PM
Vansanity said...: Beauty numbers Paul!

Do you have the details on the property (SFH) that sold 23% less than list price? I'd love to hear them.; July 17, 2008 11:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Paul wrote:
"Lots of mid month cancellations or the inventory would have really climbed today."

Yes, but how many?

Whybuywhenucanrent'til'13?
**Forecasting a 50% drop in Van RE by 2012!!**; July 17, 2008 11:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous said...

Paul wrote:
"Lots of mid month cancellations or the inventory would have really climbed today."

Yes, but how many?

I believe it's a simple calculation. Calculate the difference between the number of listings and the number of sales. If there were 100 listings and 50 sales, then 50 listings should have been added to the total inventory. If total inventory only went up by 25, you have your number: 25 cancellations.; July 18, 2008 12:54 AM
alexcanuck said...: I believe it's a simple calculation
Well, yes, simple enough except for several complicating factors.
We don't know if a disappearance is 90 day expiry or early cancellation. Indicates very different psychology.
Krish/SATV/Thums up/Head also up his *** may drop by and can't do the math.; July 18, 2008 7:00 AM
Stillooking said...: Paul,
I'm seeing some crazy "sold under list" percentages for the last few weeks. 20% under list? Wow. In the majority of cases, that's below assessment. Is it a case of a few desperate sellers willing to unload at any cost? Or do the numbers indicate more and more houses are selling >10-20% below listing?; July 18, 2008 1:44 PM
Paul said...: 2 days of the FV:
Inventory:11,109
Listings: 530
Price changes: 367
Sales: 147
SLR: 28%; July 18, 2008 8:21 PM
Paul said...: The -23% sale was a house on a 5 acre blueberry farm listed at 1,498,000 in Pitt Meadows which sold for 1,160,000. It was on for 127 DOM. Assessed at 305k so perhaps a tough one to price.; July 18, 2008 8:50 PM
Vansanity said...: That's interesting, thank Paul.

Quite the drop. Price setting must be a challenge without a comparable property. Regardless, this example proves that the initial price set was arbitrary.; July 18, 2008 9:15 PM
Anonymous said...: A 60% over list price?? I guess they priced it REALLY sharp!!; July 18, 2008 10:15 PM
Anonymous said...: 19788, we're 212 units away from 20K. This market is over. Sorry Bulls, if you are holding property, you better sell now to stop the bleeding.; July 19, 2008 12:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Paul, any action today?; July 19, 2008 9:09 PM
freako said...: Dave said:

We are only a week in and already I am ahead.

That was like a thousand listings ago.; July 19, 2008 11:37 PM
VancouverGuy said...: People have not done a lot of work on quantifying how much prices need to drop.

I did a bit and put it up for people to take a look at.

http://pissmeoffvancouver.blogspot.com/2008/07/cap-rates.html; July 20, 2008 12:41 PM
Paul said...: FV: 11209

New Listings 197
Price Changes 60
Sold Listings 55
S/L Ratio 28%; July 21, 2008 8:45 PM
exx said...: GV + FV = 31,054 total inventory. The amazing weather must be to blame, much like the awful June weather was. What is perfect RE buying weather anyway? Overcast?; July 21, 2008 10:32 PM
Paul said...: FV:11293

New Listings 173
Price Changes 107
Sold Listings 62
S/L 36%

Bullish day in the REBGV. Numbers shortly.; July 22, 2008 9:19 PM
Anonymous said...: "Bullish day in the REBGV. Numbers shortly."

Nooooooooo, dont break my heart.; July 22, 2008 9:42 PM
Michael said...: 11pm and no digits yet tonight. I wonder what the situation is...; July 22, 2008 11:04 PM
BBY said...: Gee, we all keep showing up here at the same time, every day, to get that fix. Shouldn't we be ordering beers or something...

Hang on... updates just in at 11:16pm

wow. the market is utterly bullish with a 43% s/l and an inventory increases of 20. Seems like Tuesdays are like that here... Let's see if Wednesday is a bit more bearish.; July 22, 2008 11:22 PM
Stillooking said...: Well, it's time for me to buy. Our d/t condo was sold a few months ago and I'm seeing sufficient price drops in our area of interest (NVan, Central Lonsdale area)that mortgage payments will be very comfortable. Sellers! Step right up! I could buy your home.....for the right price.; July 23, 2008 6:59 AM
Patiently Waiting said...: I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a massive wave of listings in the early Fall. Several thousand more will be added as the word gets out about the dead Summer market.

Also, new developments will come on the market.

The question is, will we peak at 25K or 30K before listings get pulled for the Winter?

stillooking, you might want to wait a few months, at least.; July 23, 2008 10:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Paul - what is your guess on % and $ change to benchmarks this month?

thanks. your site rocks, but we need more chatter!:); July 23, 2008 2:24 PM
dingus said...: Thinking of inventory --

Check out bubble markets inventory tracking blog, which tracks inventory for various southern california markets (as well as doing jawdropping exposes of flippers in trouble).

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

The thing I'll draw attention to is the inventory levels for these markets are around what Vancouver's is, except that I suspect the population base is bigger. It'd be interesting to compare listings / # residents as a metric, which BMIT does, to see what kind of ballpark we are really in.

What is greater van's population anyway?; July 23, 2008 3:38 PM
johnnyrent said...: Dingus

There were 2,524,113 persons living in the Lower Mainland area in 2007. This includes every area West of Hope. The combined inventory of the GVRD and FVRD is slightly over 31,000. Don't know if that's a record, but it strikes me as an awful lot. Anyone know what the all time record was?; July 23, 2008 4:30 PM
Schnorrer said...: Inputing current population for Greater Vancouver, and the combined GVRD and FV numbers, you get 1 listing per 81.4 people.

That's actually significantly more bearish than California, even at the peak of the market down South.

Wasn't expecting that. Wow.; July 23, 2008 4:48 PM
Vansanity said...: Patiently Waiting - I agree with your feeling on this fall. I've got to ask: What do you see next year being like?

My prediction: I see the trend continuing at about 5K higher.; July 23, 2008 5:20 PM
investah said...: schnorrer, that's another reason why our market will drop much faster than Cal.; July 23, 2008 5:21 PM
dingus said...: jr / schnorrer

Thanks. That is an awful lot, if you compare it to the markets on the BMIT blog (scroll down the main page to the inventory listings).

We're suprisingly foursquare in Socal / AZ territory in that regard. Many of these epically tanking markets are comfortably above 1/100.

Well, well.; July 23, 2008 5:23 PM
Paul said...: Guessing at benchmark price declines is just that, a guess. If this is WOW asking again just scroll up this thread and you can see where I answered this question twice. If it's someone new forgive me but who knows how much prices will correct. You tell me? What you think prices will do?

I do expect prices to drop and keep dropping. With the MOI shooting up where else could prices go? If we start to clear out the inventory we could be back into a seller market. If....

Schnorrer,

What do the Cali numbers look like compared with us? With sales off 43% last month I would not be surprised at a fast drop in values here.; July 23, 2008 5:47 PM
johnnyrent said...: We're well ahead of one particularly frothy US market, Metro San Diego:

All time high inventory: 23,715
Pop. 3.1 million

We're also ahead of a not so frothy market, Metro Seattle:

All time high inventory: 26,917
Pop. 2.5 million

We've got a ways to go to catch up to Metro Phoenix:

All time high inventory: 65,048
Pop. 4.1 million

We're closing in on Las Vegas:

All time high inventory: 31,334
Pop. 1.9 million

By any measure, our inventory ingredient is a recipe for correction.; July 23, 2008 7:05 PM
Schnorrer said...: Hey Paul,

I'm using a different e-mail address (name was "Michael" before and also "newguy vancouver" -- whatever, doesn't matter).

To answer your question, we can compare Vancouver's listings per population to Los Angeles and San Diego. I've chosen these because they are tracked by the Case-Shiller index, which is a metric that I trust more than the others (more reliable than realtor's association numbers, etc.) I would like to include San Fran but I don't have the full data set for that city.

The San Diego market hit its peak in April 2006 and since then has declined by 27.7% as of April 2008. The San Diego market had a listings per population ratio of 1:191 in Jan 2007 and 1:158 in Jan 2008.

The Los Angeles market hit its peak in September 2006 and since then has declined by 27% as of April 2008. The LA market has a listings per population ratio of 1:288 in January 2007 and 1:192 in mid May 2008.

Vancouver's ratio is now at 1:81. That's 3.5 X greater listings ratio than LA at its peak and 2.4 X San Diego.; July 23, 2008 7:12 PM
macho slob said...: I think Mohican had shown some Case-Shiller graphs a while ago that showed areas which managed to delay price drops where falling substantially faster than the first areas to fall.

As the most unaffordable city in North America, along with one of the highest listings/population ratios, we should be a contender to break the speed record for falling markets.; July 23, 2008 8:30 PM
N2V said...: "I do expect prices to drop and keep dropping. With the MOI shooting up where else could prices go? If we start to clear out the inventory we could be back into a seller market. If....
"

I agree Paul. On the other hand, does decreased listings due to many owners taking their house off the market count as "clearing out the inventory" in your comments?; July 23, 2008 8:32 PM
jesse said...: "Phoenix: All time high inventory: 65,048"

Phoenix's population is growing fast so there would normally be a larger inventory float. I'd check the population and inventory numbers to be sure the metro populations match the same geographic area as the listings.

Inventory is very high in Vancouver but sales, even today, are nowhere near historic lows seen about 10 years ago. I suggest, with all sincerity, that Realtors out there store nuts now or prepare a CV just in case.; July 23, 2008 9:24 PM
VanTOVan said...: Paul, Do the FV numbers you provide include Chilliwack? I think they have their own RE board, and their MLS listings are numbered differently. (And they're going to get 'wacked baby! like all of exuburbia)
If so, that would make the ratio even more bearish (given that the pop. cited includes areas west of Hope); July 23, 2008 9:27 PM
Patiently Waiting said...: "Patiently Waiting - I agree with your feeling on this fall. I've got to ask: What do you see next year being like?

My prediction: I see the trend continuing at about 5K higher."

Could be higher. With so many new condo developments completing next year, its hard to guess.

What are they going to do with all that new inventory, how will it appear on the MLS (will developers hold back?), and will developers try renting out units instead?; July 23, 2008 10:12 PM
N2V said...: Thanks for the numbers again Paul!; July 23, 2008 10:22 PM
Anonymous said...: With the fireworks going on it sure would've been a nice night to hit 20K!

Fish has called third base so that's pretty good in itself.

Chico; July 23, 2008 10:24 PM

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