We will check out "mansions" in PEI, Montreal Quebec, Toronto Ontario, Saskatoon Saskatchewan and 2 entries from BC: Kelowna and East Vancouver (Van West is impossible).
Toronto Ontario: $1,000,000

Fabulous Custom Built, 4-Bedroom 2-Storey Apprx 4200 Sq Ft * Large Double Door Entry, Enter The Massive Foyer, Circular Stairs To Basement, Skylight & Large Windows, Bright Open Concept Layout, Sunken Living Room, Formal Dining Room, Finished Basement, Beautiful Wet Bar, Ideal For Entertaining, Situated On A Premium 60 X 160 Ft Lot ...
MLS listing here: LISTING
Saskatoon Saskatchewan: $939,900

Jaw Dropping Beauty only begins to describe tis custom built Northridge home. Located in desirable Briarwood on a quiet cul-de-sac within walking distance to parks and lake. The endless and flawless features of this home are sure to go beyond all expectations. With a large chef's dream kitchen with 10' ceilings and all the fixings it opens up to the great room with 18' ceilings, huge windows, gas fireplace and hardwoods...
MLS listing here: LISTING
Montreal Quebec: $999,000

Discover a UNIQUE MANSION... This magnificent 1914 residence built on a 30 000 s.f. land offers a 6,000 s.f. living space. An annexe to the original house enhances its spaciousness, with separated entry, that can be used for personal or professional purposes. Ask for a visit !
MLS listing here: LISTING
P.E.I: $950,000

Top quality home situated in the prestigious New Glasgow Resort and Golf Club. This beautifully appointed home features 6 bedrooms, & 5 baths. Over 6000 sq ft of top quality living space. Splendid landscaping, spectacular views. This home comes with 2 lifetime memberships to New Glasgow Hills Golf Club...
MlS listing here: LISTING
Kelowna BC: $969,900

A spectacular executive residence located on one of the most sought after streets in kelowna. Offering over 4000 sqft of spacious living that is ideal for family living and entertaining. Nestled beside and buffered by a large natural green space, adding tons of appeal to this already spectacular property.
MLS listings here: LISTING
Vancouver BC: Van East $998,000 Living the dream ;)

Truly a gem in the Cambie/ Main area. Freshly painted exterior leads to an excellent Main floor plan with spacious L/R & D/R's, large country style kitchen plus den/bdrm. Up has 3 bdrm & huge funky bathroom. Down is a 2 bdrm mortgage helper(925/mo). Terrific shopping/dining/antiques area. Kids go to Wolfe Elementary & Hamber Secondary.
MLS listing here: LISTING
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«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 222 Newer› Newest»To carry over the last question, the numbers are looking bearish as usual.
I like the Kelowna house. Looks like you get a nice home for 1M there.
Disgusting (what $1million buys here). Paul, love the stats. Hope the numbers turn uber bearish in the months ahead, and I do expect that they will. Look forward to a dramatic repricing of Vancouver homes/condos, so that they at least approximate some semblance of fair value.
I will hold my cash until then.
Oh, man! That's so funny, even when you know what the punch line is going to be.
Very nice Paul.
Who isn't thinking of moving now?
Dyugle
There's an article on News1130 "Guide to living safely with bears." I think it's a sign!
Can't wait for the bear food tonight.
Hi Paul!! Lovely article! Okay everbody imagine this (especially bears. All these owners meet on a cruise ship going somewhere and sitting at a dinner table ALL say yep my house is right around a cool million. So they party on and the somebody says "Let's show each other pictures of our places" Now please tell me; Which one would you NOT want to be?" Hilarious Paul Thanks! To bad the Province or Sun are way to gutless to pick up a real story. Can't imagine why anyone would say they work for these papers any more then choose the looser picture above! :-)
Hey, why are you guys being so critical? The Vancouver one had fresh paint. I didn't see fresh paint on any of the other ones...
Some poor soul is actually paying almost $1,000 per month to live in the basement of that clunker?
From the last thread:
peekaboo views said...
anonymous, I didn't mean to imply that all boomers are rich. In fact I'm a boomer offspring and my parents are not rich. Come to think of it, I only know 2 of my peers with rich boomer parents. So there you go.
michael, I'm overeducated too. Over 10 years of PS school. I have owned RE in the past...bought and sold a few times (including in Van). I'm not a RE investor, I just bought and sold based on where I had to go for a job and was lucky that it was affordable. Building a career sometimes means moving a lot. Now I'm back in Van and yes I know too much to buy. Sometimes I think that about kids too!
But I confess to having had the thought of getting into a 30 year mortgage just so I won't get kicked out of another condo because the owners are selling!
In 20 years, which of these would be worth the most? I'd say East Van. Think of people who owned in Kit's point 20 years ago.
The listings keep coming so were going to have a 10-10:30pm posting time. Stay tuned, it's worth it :0
If a housing market falls down in the city and no reporter is around to hear it - does it make a sound?
You sound like a decent fellow Paul.
Every time I read one of your straight up comments I feel like I've gotten some inside knowledge. Feels a little like cheating ;)
Now, what can I do until 10:30...?
Let's speculate. Do you think we'll hit the mythical '500 listing' day???
What's the highest it's been recently?
We may never hit 500 day as they keep it pending till weekend. If you ask me, we would see a full weekend of listings (sat and sun including) before we see 500.
Hey Paul,
Cheers for keeping us posted.
Quick question: is there any way of finding out how long a property has been on the market through mls?
Last time I bought a place my realtor (Calgary) had all the details on the number of days on the market. There's a place in East Van that must've been there for months now and I think they may have even raised the price... maybe I'm wrong but when you see the lame layout of it, its really hard to forget. :)
Anons:
You're likely right. 500 listings might appear in the REBGV inbox in one day, but unless they call in for reinforcements they may not have the manpower capacity to process 500 listings in a day.
Hey PaulB and RobC--you had better watch out or the Board might call some of you fancy pants realtors in to get through their paper work mountain!! ;)
The highest we saw in paul's area is 445 listings, that was last Friday.
Paul, any eta?
How are things looking?
Vansanity:
Realtors can view a property's history and see how long it has been sitting or how many times it has been listed etc. email me and I can give you the scoop.
VHB:
Exactly. We had well over 400 listings last Friday and then 226 on Sat. 500 is possible but difficult due to all the price reductions that also demand board time ;). Lol. j/k We hit the mid 400's 3 days in a row now (excluding Sat).
Numbers in 15.
I dont understand why does not the board let realtors upload their listings? Is it that tough? Any thoughts Paul?
Holy Mother of God. I think we will see a very strong sales day tomorrow. This is more like a discrepancy. Thanks for making my night Paul.
Paul, any news on FV?
In Toronto I loaded all my listings and I would want to do it here if the board allowed it. That way I could have my listings on the market within hours instead of 3 business days later (submission day plus 2).
Whoa, talk about an outlier of a day...
Wow, just wow.
Thank you, Paul.
Anon:
Brokers can load their own listings. It is not hard but time consuming. We fill out a 6 page data sheet which the board processes.
Anon deux:
FV has been really mellow lately. I don't get it at all. 9490 Listings.
VHB said... "Let's speculate..."
Dammit VHB! Why the change of heart?!? You've been a guiding light for so long showing us NOT to speculate. And we have followed the wisdom of the "math" and the "fundamentals" that are scorned by so many. The speculators were to have their comeuppance. Now this. Why should we speculate now? Isn't this the top?!? Why have you forsaken us? Why....
oh. just read the rest of it. never mind.
Still. you used the "s" word...
Paul
Couple of questions. I would have thought that after a weekend, there would be a whole lot more sales. Is this an anomoly or?
I noticed average days on market for SFH at 77 which is a huge spike up. What gives?
Hi Johnny,
Sales are taking some time to get posted.Listings are a priority and the board tries to post the new listings within 48 hrs. Sales are currently taking a back seat.
The huge spike in the DOM is just beacuse of the tiny sample size. So few sales.
Paul:
My 2 sales last week got processed same day.
My listings always take 2 days after submission.
I have a new listing up today that I sent in on Friday that I didn't expect to be processed until tomorrow, but because of Saturday posting, it got processed today :)
Vansanity,
Sign up for VoW. Not sure if Paul has it available or not. It will give you extra info that you don't see on mls, like the number of days listed, room sizes, etc.
But...if you sign up for Vow, the realtor that you sign up with will call you.
Coco
Wow Paul thanks.
Inventory up 1000+ in under 1 week.
Ah the spring selling season.
-Dyugle
Jeff:
I had 2 sales last submitted about a week ago and they are still not posted. I sent 2 listings in yesterday, so today or tomorrow I hope they pop up.
Wow... I was hoping for a steady climb and inventory reaching 17000 by the end of the month. If this keeps up, we might get there by the end of the week! Definitely encouraging signs all around. I think for many of us, our addiction just got worse.
I feel the greed rising in myself...
I want 18,000.
The new listings and sales don't match the increase in inventory, unless there were negative delistings. I think there's some sort of clerical backlog. Or maybe this is like discovering a new elementary particle -- at first you think it's measurement error but after a few more tests you figure out it's the real thing. Eureka.
Jesse: don't forget Saturday's listings.
Paul:
You probably need to resend them. They probably got lost in the massive pile of listings. Do it now and they might even get processed today... lol.
Paul,
It's not often that you see a real estate agent as bearish as you on the real estate market. Is it safe to say that you currently don't own in this market and are hoping for a correction in the market so that you can have the opportunity to buy at a more resonable price?
paul, you must be seeing lots of sales today. Pls pls tell me that I am wrong. hehehehehe. Greed at its peak for me.
Jeff:
I am going to have to look into it! lol
Trader:
I bought a condo with my wife in 2001. We sold in 2006 for another investment opportunity. The plan was when we got our nest egg back to buy another home. We are close to the investment finish line but in the last 6 months or so we have decided to hold off. If value does not improve I will move to PEI! ;)
Anon:
We have more sales being posted today but listings will likely conquer later this evening.
thanks Paul - go listings go!!:))
let us know how things look in a few hours....would you talk to a couple looking in NVan but waiting, ie. would you build clients for execution in a couple of years or should they just wait before talking to you? just wondering how you see it...I know some folks who want in but will wait...ultimately they will buy.
"ultimately they will buy"
so would I. Right now sitting on my pile of money and waiting for 40% crash.
Paul, you will be my man on the day of reckoning. Mind you, I can be a very picky buyer. heheheheeh.
Still adding... See you guys back here for 10:15pm! :)
There's no better place to be at 10:15 on a rainy Vancouver night.
Argh, I need my daily dose of numbers...
Hmm, wonder if Sam Sullivan would fund this safe number site...
paul, how is FV?
What is Coco up to now?
Another blog:
Things other people want you to know
http://thingsotherpeoplewantyoutoknow.wordpress.com/
The blog where the blogger gives advice.
Pitiful numbers, especially given the 0% ratio on Saturday and yesterday's weak numbers. Yes, maybe it's finally happening...
Hmmm would have been an increase of 200 but apparently 51 cancellations/expiries.
25% cancellations or expiries seems rather high fo mid month, me thinks ae might be back at new lower price by weeks end. Can you tell how many expired as opposed to canceled Paul?
Never the less extremely bearish as Tuesday is the top "sales day" it seems judging from the past.
Yes, maybe this IS it.
Spoke to a realtor friend today and he says basically the same as you, Paul. Listings are taking days, the board is running flat out to get them up.
Not bad for a slow day, those numbers.
"would have been an increase of 200 but apparently 51 cancellations/expiries."
that should be 81. yes, it is high, but not unusual. We saw 102 on May 9th. ;-)
FV is at 9550.
Strataman:
We had 74 pulled off the market today, either cancelled , terminated or expired. Only a few expired.
Oops that was me
oooh, baby - I'm lovin' it!
Anon said...
"let us know how things look in a few hours....would you talk to a couple looking in NVan but waiting, ie. would you build clients for execution in a couple of years or should they just wait before talking to you? just wondering how you see it...I know some folks who want in but will wait...ultimately they will buy."
I would be happy to speak with your friends. It gives me a chance to be of service before they buy a home.
You can find my contact info on my websites and thank you for thinking of me!
The Globe and Mail has just published an article titled: "Homes market flooded by sellers".
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080514.whousingsurvey14/BNStory/Business/home
More stuff like that is not going to be good for consumer sentiment.
Not that it matters that much -- you can only artificially pump up a market for so long before the bubble bursts -- its inevitable.
Anyhoo, Paul, how are things looking over at the Board today?
Very true Michael. Articles like the one above can scare buyers. The way these listings are pouring in is scaring me!
Today it looks like the Board may be taking a Tai Chi day because nothing is really going on. Just a few listings and few sales. Perhaps things will rachet up in the next couple hours.
I will keep you all in the loop.
Paul,
Cheers for the info! Appreciate it! It's amazing isn't it?!?! I commented on coco's blog while thanking her for the VoW info.
Also, I gotta say I love the million dollar listings comparison! I've shown a few people that page and it makes them all sick to their stomachs. The visuals work so wel.Well done, definately keep those comparisons going!
What I'm seeing out there: The words crash and correction are part of the mainstream vernacular lately. It's good to see, makes me feel like what I know and understand about markets, might actually come true one day! Out of bizzaro world we go!
Please Paul - periodic updates on the board activity prior to posting tonight - need a mini-fix before the big before bed stats!:))
thanks, you rock Dude.
Hey, the kelowna property is a robert Zoost listing. See condohype for details :-)
O.K. Mini fix for anon:
listings are making another run. Hard to say where we will finish...
Panda:
Zoost eh? lol. I read that earlier on vanunrealestate.
paul, fv numbers pls
FV= 9666 uh-oh ;)
Thanks for the numbers, as always!
u, the man. made my night.
Thanks Paul
Paul,
this market is really starting to suck. not as many buyers. sellers in denial on pricing. even the price reduced properties are priced too high. and take a look at what's selling it's actually the stuff that isn't price reduced. that tells us exactly what we know as Realtors that pricing in any market is so critical.
I'm with you Jeff. In the last few weeks things have gotten worse. It's gonna be a rough ride. S/L ratio's in the 30's. Best of luck buddy.
This market is over. With inventory as it is, stick a fork in it, it's DONE.
"The housing market doesn't respond immediately to swings in employment and it takes people time to react to changes in personal circumstance," said association chief economist Will Dunning. "Even if recent forecasts are right and the labour market in Canada should start to weaken, momentum from past job creation should result in continued strong housing demand well into 2009."
Hahahahahahahahahaha! Continued strong housing demand well in 2009! What a joke! "Experts" like these remind me of those cartoons when the roadrunner or whatever runs off a cliff. First, the creature stays in the air in place with just its legs moving. Then after a few seconds, he plunges straight down.
Right now, Van housing prices are staying steady in mid air, but the market has gone off the cliff, and gravity will soon take prices back down to earth.
Thanks Paul...we could see 18,000 this month...WoW...I'm thinking 20,000 by the end of June...
Any sense of what the record number of listings is for the REBGV - we hit a Canada wide record...just wondering if there is a number we can track for your region.
I was wondering exactly the same thing - is there a archival chart tracking the REBGV numbers that we can see compared to a median house price chart?
That would be kind of interesting to see.
Has everyone become so conditioned to a sellers market that when the market starts to morph into more of a buyers market people think the prices will crash?
Prices could flatline, come down slightly, etc., you just don't know until it actually starts to happen.
Coco
Bank of Canada is supposed to lower interest rates again in June.
So that might work against a large correction in price too.
Coco
Not really a historical chart but:
Red-hot housing market loses its heat
LORI MCLEOD
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
May 14, 2008 at 9:48 PM EDT
"Resale home listings across Canada rose by 17.7 per cent last month from the year before, putting them at the highest level on record, according to data released Wednesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
servlet/story/RTGAM.20080514.whousing15/BNStory/Business
I am not surprised we are at record levels of inventory nationally. I will search my archives and see what I can dig up regarding Vancouver numbers.
"Prices could flatline, come down slightly, etc., you just don't know until it actually starts to happen."
No, that is extremely unlikely. Currently, investors hold cash-flow-negative properties because they get a return through appreciation. Without appreciation, these investments become poor performers and have to be sold. What is more, people currently overextend themselves to be able to buy because they fear being priced out and they want to benefit from appreciation. When those incentives dissappear, people will not want to buy as much. Lastly, there has never been a RE boom followed by a flat line, ever, anywhere.
So, although, I suppose, on an abstract level, we do not know what will happen, just as we do not really know if the sun will rise tomorrow, we can be fair sure that prices will not flat line or decrease slightly.
Newcomer,
So basically you are saying that there is so many investors in the market that prices will crash even if the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates and employment levels remain high?
Coco
Hi Paul,
You don't need to look at far for an amazing $1,000,000 home.
A quick search on MLS turns up quite a few nice properties in the Westwood Plateau coquitlam area.
Paul,
When you dig up a graph, if you have the time you should put the interest rate levels on some of the boom/bust cycles.
I believe that the Bank of Canada website has an archive on interest rates.
Coco
Coco,
What I understand newcomer is saying is that, if properties are cash flow negative and appreciation is at best flat and more likely slipping backwards, why would an investor hold? As long as properties are cash flow negative, once the YOY big price increases are over, people will sell to realize gains and not be invested in something that will be dead money for a while -- unless they really do believe prices will rebound again soon. I think market sentiment is pretty clear for most, that this market has run out of gas (last place in North America to do so)....this is why we are seeing the flood of listings, this party is over, in my opinion...
Paul, how are the sales looking for May now that we're mid-month? Are we on pace to match the past 3 years in sales at ~4300? No worries if this is not an easy figure to provide at this time.
Coco,
Nice to read you here.
But even if the BoC drops interest rates, does not mean the banks will follow. Or if they follow, it is not certain they will drop by the same amounts. I spoke to my bank manager about this a few weeks ago when I asked if they had followed that first 50bps cut...first the heeming and hawing and then the answer...no. Not to the same extent. Variable may do ok but longer term money costs more. The banks are still leary of lending.
Besides, as we read over and over again, the rate drops in the states have not helped that market.
To Coco,
I've got to say that Newcomer and Watching the Market on bank on on this one.
One needs to take the emotional aspect out of house prices, and instead look at the bare bones economics. As such, a property can be seen as an income producing asset, in that there is a base price (the house price) with a dividend, which is the priveledge of being able to live in that property. The dividend is best represented by the rental value.
Current rental values are quite low in Vancouver compared to house prices, which indicates a disconnect. This disconnect represents not actual value, but rather investor speculation of further increases. In other words, a speculative bubble.
The reason speculative bubbles always end badly is as Newcomer described. Once the prediction is out for markets to "flatline", then the speculative aspect of the market dissipates, and the new value needs to represent the fundamental value, which is that of a dividend producing asset. As such, prices are significantly overvalued in Vancouver. In fact, last year Forbes magazine used similar analysis to indicate that Vancouver was the most overvalued housing market in the world.
Why would anyone mortgage their first born to get IN on a market that has at best flatlined? Even in a savings account they could get close to 4%.
It doesn't make financial sense and after that it's just emotion and the psychology driving the purchasing.
The psychology will shift.
"So basically you are saying that there is so many investors in the market that prices will crash even if the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates and employment levels remain high?"
Yes, IF prices flat line or drop by any amount. This is because no amount of rate cutting (there is not much left to cut) or wage inflation coupled with rent inflation (short of 150% gains) would bring the current market in lines with fundamentals.
It is technically possible, however, for prices to continue to go up. As long as there is appreciation, the market can be self sustaining. However, as we are approaching a 50% rise in inventory, appreciation is becoming highly unlikely.
Exx:
I will give you a mid month number tonight after the sales are in. I can tell you from a glance this month is way off last May. Listings dramatically higher and sales are dropping like a stone.
I was reading an interesting article this morning about how Chicago has a record number of new Condos completing but no one is buying. It all sounds a bit familiar until I read the actual stats...
Chicago, a city of 3 million people has 6000 new condos completing this year. Vancouver, which is 1/5th the population of Chicago has 4000 condos completing this year.
Over 1/2 the number of units but only 1/5th the population?
Vancouver condo market is screwed...
_Dmello
Paul: thanks, I'm also very interested in a mid-month sales update. The numbers in your daily updates seem way, way off of what I would expect May to look like.
according to my mid-month stats listings are up 10% and sales down 41% over May 2007 and 17% more listings and 40% less sales than May 2006.
41% less sales seems extreme, can you verify Paul?
Paul, do you include assignments in the listings ? Any idea how many ? I hear these are increasing dramatically and would like to exclude those to see the true 'what is for sale" stats. thanks
Assignments and Pre-sales are not included in the MLS numbers unless the developer allows it. From the numbers I have accumulated, there are roughly 600-750 pre-sale and assignments currently available in downtown Van that don't appear on MLS.
paul, how is fv sell / list so far this month?
dmello:
Our numbers differ dramatically. I will post at days end.
Concerto:
My numbers include everything on MLS. Lots of presales are listed but not all. So yes and no. If you want to cruise for presales check out craigslist.
Anon:
FV over the last 14 days-
Listings:1851
Sales:785
Price changes:997
42% S/L ratio
Paul - I differentiate pre-sales (pre construction "sales" by the developer) and assignments. Can you tell how many assignments are in the MLS numbers you record ?
Looks like 1100 under construction and 307 assignments.
In many parts of California, prices pretty much flatlined from fall '05 to fall '07. Wafted up and down, but didn't move much.
In an ordinary crash, that's what would happen in Van, but there's a few unique features to Vancouver--"its different here"
* bigger price runup
* pre-runup baseline price less affordable
* lower wages
* higher % of units owned by specuvestors
* rent:mortgage ratio so out of whack folks will go bankrupt in a matter of months, not years.
* B.I.G. drop in employment coming online.
* Many other housing markets have recently crashed, proving not only that it *can* happen, but essentially proving it *will* happen.
Yup, its different here.
This is not California 2005.
BTW, on the original post, that Sask house looks like the BIG loser--that's priced about the same as a house in the Van burbs, right? Hello price compression. Hello Sask B.I.G. crash. I see an overnight crash in Sask regardless, Van '83 style.
Again,
Whybuywhenucanrent?
**Forecasting a 50% drop in Van area RE prices by 2012**
I follow chilliwack proper just for fun and cause i own a house here. listings are way up over the last two days, 309 condos and 217 houses. it had tapered off for a while so i thought the market was saturated but i thought wrong.
j6p
I did some number crunching and here is what I found. These numbers are based on the first half of May compared with May 07. If we trend the same as the first half we can expect to see:
Sales down 28%
Listings up 51%
That's quite a spread.
And yes inventory is still adding up. I will have the details for 10pm.
And we are on track for less sales than last month.
Thanks Paul! It's amazing how much the market has turned this year. I wonder why? Interest rates have gone down, so what's going on here? I could understand the overbuilding adding tons of inventory, but sales dropping significantly?
I thought we would slowly build inventory and prices would flatline, but to see these numbers in May is surprising. Almost shocking if we didn't anticipate this possibility.
Remember last year they started to raise interest rates and people had to act before they were priced out and now that pressure is off.
FV = 9805
Hi Paul, will the stats be posted at 10:00...or will they be later? Thanks in advance!
Wow, bearish numbers again... The total number of new listings isn't *that* high-- to me it seems to be a case of sales falling off a cliff that's causing inventory to balloon.
Looks like the buyers have gone on strike!
Thanks Paul....yes, does look like a buyers strike (although listings still look high relative to last year, sales have fallen off the cliff).
Buyers Strike - neat concept - I like it!
Buyers strike it is!
I wonder what was going through the minds of the 42 people who bought SFH today?
What were they thinking? Did they notice that no one else was buying around them?
It would make an interesting study in behavioural economics into what motivates people to buy even AFTER everyone else stops. Yale economist Robert Shiller theorized "information cascade" which explains speculative bubbles quite well. But the theory does not explain what causes people to make the same irrational decisions once the cascade no longer exists, such as now in Vancouver.
My belief is that todays buyers did not internalize current events, and so are still "stuck" in the cascade of the previously good times.
Probably not all the current buyers are oblivious to the oncoming train crash. There should be buyers who have greater pressures to buy than the economic pressures not to buy. Hopefully these folks have the means (are loaded) and are buying for rational -- and probably unique -- reasons. The ones that are oblivious, well, I wish they knew better. They really don't deserve the pain that this will cause. Unless, of course, they're a speculator.
CTV just did the first part of their news segment on Canada's cooling housing market, pointing out significant price drops in various areas & free cars etc... being given out. Lots of talk about a return to a 'sane' market. Not surprisingly for CTV, Vancouver wasn't mentioned.
I guess the MSM must be having some impact now that this type of news is becoming more common. I would have a sinking feeling in my stomach if I had just purchased a new home, flipped on the news and saw that.
Just to confirm are these daily #'s, like what actually happened today ? I thought I saw Paul post something a while back saying that the sales might actually be from two weeks ago, after all the processing time, etc.
If that is the case, the numbers will look real awful two weeks from now after everyone who was thinking of buying today won't be and those numbers will reflect a couple of weeks out.
Paul please confirm... sales and listing are both from the last 24 hours, or is there a longer lag.
Thanks.
Sales need to become subject free and then the board takes a few days to process the sale. Usually up to 2 weeks from the time of sale.
11 SFH sales in North Van in the past week, and 354 SFH on the market.
So it looks like over 32 weeks of inventory for North Van SFH...and its May.
Actually, REBGV SFH appears to be over 36 weeks of inventory and condos 28 weeks, based on the last weeks sales.
This week officially puts the REBGV area into 'bear mode' with over 6 months of inventory and we can all look forward to price declines shortly.
Yay - housing will be getting more affordable and my own six-figure income household may be able to afford to buy a decent home in a couple years.
Thanks for providing these numbers Paul. I credited you in my most recent post.
If you are trading up or down, or just moving from one part of the lower mainland to another, it is not necessarily nuts to buy now. Even if you could save a few bucks by renting for a few years between selling and buying, if you've got the money to buy now, and all you would be saving is a few tens of thousands, it may not be worth the hassle.
Or imagine that a house come on the market on a street that you have always wanted to live on and you currently live on a crappy street. Price compression might well mean that the two houses (the one you want and the one you currently live in) are closer in price now than they will be in the future.
There are lots of situations that present good reasons to buy at any time. There are just a whole lot less now than there were before.
Hmm... do you think more homes going unsold would create a bit of a self accelerating effect? With more potential buyers unable to complete deals, unable to remove subjects if their current property doesn't sell?
"do you think more homes going unsold would create a bit of a self accelerating effect? "
There is a leverage effect when it comes to sales. First time buyers make up a fraction of all purchases so this implies most of the remainder are tradeups. Fewer FTBs, fewer tradeups. Except for the ones getting bridge loans...
I'd be interested to hear if "subject to sale of current residence" and even "subject to financing" clauses are becoming harder to remove these days but I'm sure it would be anecdotal observations only; I don't think such things are measured.
how are numbers paul, both GV and FV :-).
More of the same today folks. 90 cancelled or terminated listings today so 17k is really touch and go from this point. See you for 10pm.
Paul, FV please
16999. What a week.
FV = 9878
Paul are you sure you didn't miss one listing? ;)
May 12th FV was 9490, 9878 today. +388 in 4 days, seems like a lot?
Yeehaa!
thanks Paul, your dedication to these stats/blog is just awesome, and so appreciated by so many of us...
think the board will be putting up listings tomorrow?
thanks as always, have a super weekend, hope you get a sale or two out there too!:))
Thanks, Paul.
Thanks Paul.
The start of something good.
18,000? I'm thinking easily by the end of the month.
And where did the sales go? Yikes, it's may...this IS the buying season isn't it?
Will check back later to see if GV is adding today.
I was just thinkng, Paul, there goes another adjustment to the graph! Got to expand one more time. :)
You may care, you may not, but Silverman at RET is runningdoen your methodology. In a roundabout way, it seems as though he is plucking away at your credibility. Kind of annoying, but thought you should be aware.
By the way, thanks for the numbers; I appreciate what you're doing here.
Thanks for the heads up Anon. VHB and I have cleared things up for him. lol!
Nothing from either RE board yet but if the listings start I will let you know.
Enjoy the sun. It's gonna be hot!
Paul "Nothing from either RE board yet " I wouldn't expect it, even data entry get irritated if their long weekend is spoiled. Thanks for the honest updates Paul. Have a good weekend.
And, almost 120 Expiries/Cancellations/Terminations! In just one day!
I'm thinking the inventory is really a lot more, with what, one in 7 listings is a re-list? So there's some sort of a pool of 15% of all listings that are for sale but not on the market. If the average "cooling period" is 2 weeks and te average original list is 2 months, that's an extra 4% inventory on top of existing stuff, so total inv. 17680 of Jan 2008 equivalents)
(that's assuming that relists are up in recent months, which seems pretty likely, given that the market was red-hot for the last couple yrs. (So that 4% wasn't there before))
Again,
Whybuywhenucanrent?
**Forecasting a 50% drop in Van area RE prices by 2012**
The weeklies are posted. S/L ratio in the 20's. Good lord!
link top right of page.
poor Silerverman is just having a hard time adjusting to this changing market. He might actually have to do a little work for his sales now :)
The engine has stopped coughing and sputtering. We are now in freefall.
Once again, thanks Paul.
A couple total inventory counts. The % is the change over May 16th 2007.
REBGV: +36%
Van West: +59%
Van East: +21%
North Van: +66%
West Van: +56%
If you want a specific area just ask.
The real question is which sub-area will see a 100% increase first?
holy crap - great stats....I say North Van...something tells me that market is headed for a real solid brick wall....then Van West and then West Van...I'm open to putting down $20 into a pool on this!:))
Fun times.
Please, lets see those stats for Port Moody, Coquitlam and New West.
I'm very curious to see those 3 suburbs as well. Thanks Paul.
Also, how does the low amount of sales affect the average price? Is there a chance that this situation could cause prices to appear higher in the event that a few very expensive properties are purchased? Reason I ask is, the last 2 weeks have been a slaughter, but the average price is actually higher than the $880K that came out for April.
Port Moody: +65%
Coquitlam: +64%
New West: +40%
The lower amount of sales would increase the volatility of the average. If we look at really low sales day this is apparent.
Sales usually take about 1 week for subject removal and a few days for the board to enter. So the sales numbers are usually delayed about 2 weeks from when the offer was accepted.
Gotta run. Will be back this evening.
Gotta be a mistake. No way May sales are less than April.
Dang! I enjoy scrolling down this thread, looking at the pictures. You can say to yourself; that's a nice house, that's a nice house, that's a nice house until you hit Vancouver. TA-DA! A magenta box on the eastside. It's amazing:)
Paul, a big thank you for your dedication in posting these numbers! I am a relatively new reader of this blog and like many I can't wait to see the latest numbers day by day...just got back from a long weekend trip and had to check the stats right away!
Hi Paul,
Will there be any stats posted tomorrow, or is the Realty Board office closed due to the holiday?
Thanks.
Paul,
Can you post stats for South Granville, Oakridge, South Cambie?
Thanks!
I would expect the board to be closed tomorrow. Should they be open I will let you know first thing.
South Granville: +14%
Oakridge: +58%
South Cambie: +44%
paul, are you sure they did not have any activity on Saturday in FV. because my shabby way of tracking tells that they did. But I would trust your statement more than anything.
No listings for the FV but 27 price changes.
anon @ 11:47 pm: there is a 24-48 hour time delay between when a property is listed on the realtors' systems and when it appears on the public mls.ca website. This often accounts for us seeing new listings showing up on a weekend.
thanks paul.
m, I am awre of that stuff. Generally, I dont see any inventory addition on Sunday on mls, unless they add inventory on Saturday. This time I did, so was just wondering.
Let's hope they're all saving them up for a big fat Tuesday listing spree :-)
Dr.B - any sense of the listing/sales trend thus far - would expect a lot of data following the long weekend - great weather, perhaps this bolstered sales? Or were agents talking to folks about listing their places more than to buyers about buying?...
The amazing long weekend weather didn't help sell any of the 15 homes along my drive down 1st ave from DT to BBY. That or it was so hot that the SOLD stickers all melted off...
So far today we are balanced , but this is the time of day that sales usually stop and it's nothing but listings until 10pm.
I overheard a coworker tell someone that a close relative is moving into Coquitlam from out of province. The out of towners paid 495K for two bedrooms and a den in Cora Towers.
I felt like saying, "Are they nuts? What's the rush?"
But, I knew I'd get one of those "funny looks" if I did.
the listings are piling in now.
Sweet bring on the listings
Numbers in ten. Pretty mild day. S/L in the 40's.
FV is at 9894 today.
heck, whats wrong with FV.
I agree that those numbers do look "mild". But it is funny how we've seen daily spiraling inventory to the point that a S/L of 40% and another 80 outstanding listings on the market actually seems tame.
Wow, not much was listed over the long weekend, lol. I was expecting at least 200 listings but it's only 147.
Plus 26 expiries/cancellations/terminations in SFHs and 65 in condos = 17174 places folks are trying to sell.
Again,
Whybuywhenucanrent'til'13?
**Forecasting a 50% drop in Van area RE prices by 2012**
Paul,
Perhaps, when you have the time, examine what amount of inventory exists at what price levels.
No use cheering increased inventory and possible price reductions if the majority of the inventory is building up at higher price levels that a lot of people can't afford to buy anyways.
Coco
Coco, I don't think its necessary for Paul to do that analysis, because the significance of the inventory is in FUTURE price change, not current.
Price declines lag inventory increases by 6-9 months. Therefore, the more dramatic price declines will occur later in the year as the most recent inventory increases start to have more of an impact.
One must remember that an irrationally exuberant mentality has existed in Vancouver for many years, and it was self reinforcing as prices continued to rise.
The public will not completely change their outlook overnight. But, to quote Sam Cooke, "A Change is Gonna Come".
Michael,
I was only suggesting it because if the majority of inventory building up is a million plus, a lot of people will not be able to afford to buy in at those levels even with price reductions.
Coco
People can only qualify for so much when it comes to a mortgage.
In the area we live in very high inventory levels in the 1.2 million range and up, yet the lower priced homes still manage to sell even in this market.
I would find it interesting to know how many days the inventory is sitting. Not so much how many days for the places that sell, but rather how many places at over 30, 60, 90, 120 days etc.
Thanks Paul and family, for the site.
Coco,
California's housing bubble and subsequent decline is a nice guide for their West Coast neighbours to the North.
Los Angeles is the least affordable metro in the US, and as such can be compared to Vancouver, which is the least affordable in Canada.
Over the past year LA median home sale price has declined from $525,000 to $412,000. This means that 10% of homes sold at the new price were affordable to households earning the median income for the area ($59,800). This is low, but it is much better than the affordability in LA one year ago - a remarkable low 3%!
The housing market is very slow to respond to change, which is why it will take a number of years for Vancouver home prices to finish dropping. Homes will be significantly more affordable then.
Rob,
Are there many new listings to report so far today?
Who? Wrong Blogger...
The numbers so far today are quite bullish. Let's see how it shakes out this evening.
No paul no. this cant be true. How can you do this to us. bullish numbers. This cant be happening. boo hoo!!!!
I'm interested to see what bullish numbers look like these days. 60% sell lists is my guess.
Hey Paul,
I'm kind of expecting some bullish stats sooner or later. In my hood (east van) driving around recently, I've been seeing a lot of sold signs out there. Always makes me wonder who's buying.
60% eh? Will you take 59%? Good guess buddy. lol! Digits in ten.
Wow, 59% is a bullish S/L ratio these days, hehe. We were looking at 110%, 75%, 85% last year, etc
Well, we had a sunny Victoria Day weekend. You had to expect SOME sales.
I would watch that inflation rate.
Even if housing prices drop, interest rates may rise to curb inflation and that can make mortgage payments more expensive than they are at todays prices.
Remember just a few years ago a 8% to 10% mortgage rate was considered a good deal.
Vansanity,
You are not the only one noticing increased sales in your neighbourhoood and I don't live anywhere near you.
Coco
paul fv please
Oops almost forgot.
FV= 9922
That's more like it. I think June is going to show better sales activity.
Jessie, did you see the RBC report on the falling housing market put out today? The jig is up. June will see more listings and LESS sales.
I think so, anyways...
FV - how will they spin the stats on 10,000+ listings, an all-time record - how do they spin that?
Will be interesting - I'm sure they will try....something like sales are happening faster (that whole BS DOM stat)...funny...tears will be flowing soon, starting in the valley and the downtown condo market.
Fun times ahead. PaulB, you rock.
hey paul ,
what are the total sales for may so far?
Canadian housing boom over, says RBC
There's the article that anonymous mentioned a few posts above.
Thanks for the link to the article...
Did I miss it? Where's any reference to the Vancouver market?
Anonymous,
If you go to RBC's website, you can access the full report there. It quotes Vancouver having a 5.0% DECREASE in sales, year over year, and a 25.9% INCREASE in inventory.
Chart 5 on page 2 of the report plots month to month house prices for Vancouver, and shows a decline in prices over the past 1-2 months.
The Vancouver Sun article doesn't mention any of this. Hmmm.... I wonder why? :-)
If the RBC report is the type of analysis being used by bank executives to decide the future direction of market I'm worried.
"The inventory situation is largely in check with unabsorbed inventories inching up but still comfortably below levels hit in the late 1980s housing market bubble"
Way to forecast the trend, guys!
paul, something strange I have started seeing off late. i saw in two of the houses in Surrey that has two realtors' boards hanging. Why would that be? Any ideas?
Anon:
Could be a co-listing or one could be the sales agent... If it sold.
Looks like sales are rallying again today. Inventory will still likely grow but at a more reasonable pace.
FV= 9984
In case Paul's post got the bear's down.
Here are some more heartening numbers while we wait for tonight's up-date:
http://fishre.blogspot.com/2008/05/look-at-dem-numbers.html
hi Paul - you are keeping me awake yet again!:))
Inventory - up/down?
I can't find the story on the www.rbc.com website--can anyone steer me towards it?
Thanks,
Whybuywhenucanrent'til/13?
Is this it?
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
that's a .pdf at the end.
Hello Whybuywhenucanrent'til/13,
On the RBC site, click on "Economics" from the left hand column, then on "Market Updates (Canada)".
The article link appears on the right hand side under "Special in Depth Reports" with the title "Housing Market Froth finally Evaporating".
Cheers,
newguy
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