What is worrying is the trend. Should sales continue to falter and inventory continue to rise, the only way prices can move is down.
We started 2008 with slightly less inventory than 2007.We are currently up 25% over last year, and 58% over April 30th 2006.
Will spring clear out the glut of inventory? Please share you thoughts.
Here are the numbers:
REBGV- up 25%
April 30th 2007: 12,135
April 30th 2008: 15,217
Van West- up 43%
April 30th 2007: 2,001
April 30th 2008: 2,870
Van East- up 6.5%
April 30th 2007: 1,282
April 30th 2008: 1,365
North Van- up 49%
April 30th 2007: 513
April 30th 2008: 765
West Van- up 41%
April 30th 2007: 431
April 30th 2008: 609
All other sub area charts here: INVENTORY Updated!
44 comments:
Mother of g--. Van RE is going down faster than Paris Hilton on Rick Salomon.
I wouldn't describe this trend is "worrying" but rather overdue... let's see what the spring brings.
PS: why do i have such a hard time with my blogger id?!!! It always says my password is wrong and I have to re-set the stupid thing every time I want to post! Ug!
mk-kids
It's no surprise that inventory is building. With 18,000 condo's currently empty (per BC Hydro)and with the boom of construction we've seen... we were bound to hit a saturation point sooner or later. Will interest rate cuts free up more money for more buyers? Perhaps. Perhaps, inflation will continue to rear its ugly head and we'll see rates climb next year with continued inventory climbing until then... could get ugly but I think we're still a ways away.
Paul, what do you think we're seeing or we'll continue to see for the remainder of the year? Thanks for the work, especially on month ends... charts look good.
No surprise on the PoMo inventory build up. Last weekend, the wife and I popped in on some open houses in a newly completed apt (The Crescendo)and the realtors jumped on us like the denizens of a Bangkok redlight district. (no offense intended to your profession Paul)
Maybe I'll go back at the end of summer to see them slumped apathetically in the bolted down lobby couches...
VanToVan
From a glance it looks like sales are down 7% compared with April 07 and listings up 21% for the month.
I just noticed Coco's blog is over, that sucks. Hard to keep up with all the news out there, it was a great reference point. If you see this Coco, thanks for all your efforts too! I hope to see your posts on some of the old blogs as I always enjoyed them.
Sorry to post it on here Paul, thought you'd understand. You guys do so much and we give you so little. It is appreciated.
I wonder how fast can prices go down here. We've had one more year of fun than the rest of North America. Things could get ugly and really fast too.
"From a glance it looks like sales are down 7% compared with April 07 and listings up 21% for the month."
Paul, I think you forgot to add those saturday numbers. imho, sales are virtually flat where as listings are up around 28%. Besides we have to be aware that april 08 had 22 days as compared to 19 in Apr 07
Thanks Paul, it is wonderful to have the data visualized so clearly! This data set looks way bearish to me. Looks like the Coquitlam inventory is really taking off.
Thanks Paul! Van West is 18.8% of the total GVREB listing up from 16.5% last year.Good chance this could be 25% of the total inventory by August. A lot of eggs in one basket don't you think? I still think it will be the downtown condo's that lead the crash in speed, and the rest will be on it's heels!
thanks for the visuals Paul :-)
This is crack for bears.
Thanks, Paul.
Pitt Meadows inventory is actually going down. I wonder what's the story there.
"Paul, what do you think we're seeing or we'll continue to see for the remainder of the year? Thanks for the work, especially on month ends... charts look good."
My guess is as good as yours at this point. If listings continue to swell and sales fall off surely we will correct. It's been a long time coming and we need a small quake so we can relieve some price pressure. The longer this boom lasts the larger the bust will be.
Secondly and most importantly I am very sad to see Coco go. She is a great person and runs a fantastic site. I check Coconews many times daily and feel a void where Coconews once was. I will not remove the link on my blog in hopes that she changes her mind. Coco reads this blog so feel free to follow Vansanity's and my lead and petition her to COME BACK!!!!
Thanks for the great charts Paul.
Thats a pretty shocking rise, if it continues as a trend this market is in trouble. Thanks for all the work you put into sharing this data Paul.
I was sad to see coco shut down her blog as well, I missed the last few posts so I didn't see the rude comments she alludes to in the closing note, but if you're reading this coco don't put too much stock in what a few anonymous crankpots say. Hope to see you posting around and hope you reconsider on the blog closing.
Awesome charts. Paul, I expect the pool of greaterfools to dwindle from here, and for sales to drop off as listings continue to spike. The charts should get more and more interesting going forward.
I'm surprised by your stats on sales (only being down single digits, and the listings increase primarily driven by sellers (vs. lack of buyers), I think buyers will clue in once the press (local) starts to highlight the RE weakness - hopefully they will now taht April weakness is in the bag.
Any guesses on how much prices fell in the month of April?
thanks - love the stats!
Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!!!!
(Last words said by the fellow staffing the USGS volcano monitor on Mt. St. Helens, 1980)
Stand back kids, tarp over your motor vehicles and stuff so the ash doesn't trash the mechanicals stuff. Close your doors and windows, stay inside!
Again,
Whybuywhenucanrent'til'13?
**forecasting a 50% drop in Van RE by 2012**
Link geology.about.com/od/volcanology/a/aa051897MSH.htm
BTW -- come back, Coco--I'm sure if you put out the call you can find some volunteer moderators to help police the comments.
WBWUCR't'13?
"Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!!!!
(Last words said by the fellow staffing the USGS volcano monitor on Mt. St. Helens, 1980)"
Or, how about this one?
"I speak to you for the last time."
Salvadore Allende, Santiago Chile, 1973.
Then, with the help of the Amerikans, he and his country went DOWN...
These graphs are getting dramatic Paul, you might want to type your website address on them so you get 'automatic attribution' when they're reposted elsewhere.
That's an excellent suggestion from Pope Paul! :-) Also you might want to invite Mish to take a look he did promise an article on Van, thinkin he'll be interested.
Mish did do a spot on us.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/canadas-housing-boom-is-over.html
And another older one.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/07/vancouver-housing-bubble.html
And more references too, search his site a bit
Thanks for the tip Pope.
I was saying the same thing to my wife yesterday. Mohican did that on his charts and it is a great way to protect, or at least get credit for the work we all put in.
I have chatted with Mish via email. I am sure he will put something together over the coming months. Bear Stearns imploded right when he was going to do a story on us last time.
Keep up the great work Paul.
BobbyBear
Nothing says busy spring market like a 19% Sell/List ratio...
Couldn't resist ;)
Holy month end expiries Batman!
Looked like we were going to hit 15,500 there looking at the list to sales numbers... oh well, by this time next week we'll be over 15,500 if the trend continues.
The world needs more Coco and less Caca.
I have chatted with Mish via email. I am sure he will put something together over the coming months. Bear Stearns imploded right when he was going to do a story on us last time.
Paul. Now, *that* would be some sweet commentary. The man has a way with words. It was great to hear Mish on Coast to Coast (March 30)the topic was 'economic meltdown'.
He did mention Vancouver in passing, but I'm sure he'd have a lot more to say, if he had the time.
Hey Paul,
In addition to the "lets imagine there is a housing crash" thread where I shamelessly use your stats and charts, you have now made this week's Vancouver Condo Info site as well - top line on the site at that.
Nice work, I think you are starting to make an impact in this crazy town!
- newguy
Also, the Pope is right in saying, "These graphs are getting dramatic Paul".
You need to 'copywrite' them to your own website and not have to track your work, wondering where it's getting posted.
I'm ticked about Coco being ripped off for her work :(
Within hours of Coco shutting her blog down one of her bloggers that used to make comments on her blog, started a copycat blog. Not very respectful, even if they were trying to be sincere. I doubt Coco will come back now.
This was a very bad idea for this person to do this.
I have to agree with you. Especially to talk about it on a thread mourning Coconews.
Nice to see the updated graphs, although since these aren't clickable links and would have to be typed in by hand you may want to tag them with your shorter 'nvcondos.ca' domain name.
Ok! Thats my last meddling suggestion - the only reason I mentioned it was that I was suprised to see this chart reprinted in Vancouver Magazine without them contacting me about it first.
The charts you provide here are valuable market indicators that I haven't seen anywhere else, so I wouldn't be suprised to see them show up in strange places.
I appreciate your suggestions Pope. I am going to make the change. Keep it simple.
Too bad Vancouver Mag. did that to you. Then they messed up the link to your blog! LOL :)
Hold your horn people. It's still too early to jump to conclusion. There are a couple of other things to consider:
1. This April was the 5th coldest in history. Surely that kept people indoor.
2. Interest rates just started to go down. And is expected to go further. Perhaps buyers are playing the waiting game.
3. The numbers are probably jacked up by the 18,000 unoccupied units. Held by investors. Those people are probably jumping off the bandwagon and are panicking to unload.
to anon:
1. A couple days of snow isn't exactly going to drop sales and make listings explode. It's not like we had a lot of rain this April.
2. Even if interest rates dropped another 2%, the average Vancouver family still can't afford the average Vancouver SFH.
3. Wouldn't 18,000 condos flooding the market by desperate specuvestors completely crash the Vancouver condo market? Even if just 10% of them bailed, it would send prices down. This is more of an argument to support the start of the bust.
"This April was the 5th coldest in history. Surely that kept people indoor."
It is not the sales that have dropped as much as listings have gone out of control. Maybe people sat near the fireplace and had nothing to do, so why not add listings on MLS. that is fun.
"Interest rates just started to go down. And is expected to go further. Perhaps buyers are playing the waiting game."
Yep, so are they in US and the buyers there have been waiting too to snap up the properties as soon as interest rate touches -5%.
"3. The numbers are probably jacked up by the 18,000 unoccupied units. Held by investors. Those people are probably jumping off the bandwagon and are panicking to unload."
All of them together at the same time? and even if that is true, a listing is a listing, no matter what circumstances it comes on mls. More listings mean more pressure on prices, its as simple as that.
# of listings drop today?
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=061743dc-061f-4e30-b1f4-c3b6012096e9&k=80340
I like the "so called benchmark" comment as well as the fact that the average for condos has fallen below the benchmark so now the benchmark is also falling. Nice lagging indicator of a benchmark.
Yeah I agree. The whole concept of the "benchmark price" is a joke, because its produces in a secretive way by the real estate industry themselves.
What would be realistic and reliable would be a Case-Shiller type index for the Canadian market. An independantly run, transparent, tracking index that looks at home prices in various cities over time.
- newguy
paul, how are numbers shaping up today?
Huge listing day (over 400) and large sales day(over 250). Inventory climbing.
I will post as soon as listings stop coming.
I can never can log onto this google blog, always says my password is incorrect.
I like this blog, then I could be biased because Paul hung out on my blog and commented regularly.
I will hang out here. I'm taking it easy and having a rest right now though.
Coco
COCO!
Let me say thank you for everything you did...
Great great work on your part and I'm glad you are still around...
Cheers!
I wonder how many of the new listings for May 2 are just re-listings of those expired from the end of April?
What I'm saying is; should we compare the inventory for these two days (April30 and May2) to track inventory growth, in which case we would actually see a decline?
Either way, its nice to see some actual reductions in "bench mark"
prices this month.. Lets hope May will do the same.
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