We have monthly price increases in all 3 categories this month (although smaller gains than last month). Sales are down 6.4% from Feb 2007 and 9% from 2006. Listings are surging, up 26.2% compared with last Feb and 21.2% more than Feb 2006.
REBGV Monthly Sell/List ratio comparison:
Detached
Feb 08: 47%
Feb 07: 65%
Attached
Feb 08: 59%
Feb 07: 72%
Apartment
Feb 08: 51%
Feb 07: 71%
Prices:
Greater Vancouver Benchmarks:
Detached: +2.54%
Attached: +2.06%
Apartment: +2.30%
North Vancouver Benchmarks:
Detached: -2.38%
Attached: +4.82%
Apartment: +3.56%
A mixed bag for North Vancouver.
Monthly summaries here
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
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69 comments:
Thanks Paul - so, in your view, are things cooling now?
That is a very tough call. We are getting mixed signals. We see steady price gains month after month. On the other hand, sales are down 6.4% and listings are up 26% . If this trend continues the only direction is down for prices. In the Fraser Valley the trend is more significant (7% drop in sales, 30% increase in inventory).
This is how the US started its downward spiral. Huge inventory gains and slow price drops which accelerated.
With the US arguably in recession and a slowdown in Canadian growth, it would take a miracle for real estate not to be impacted.
All we can do for now is look to the data for concrete evidence of our real estate markets future.
One thing is for sure, many properties are still changing hands.
Any indication that the sales are due to a better class of properties on the market? In other words, smart money heading for the exits while prices are good and getting sales because of sharply priced properties.
Put slightly differently, are the houses that are selling a better crop of homes than in years previous? And although the numbers don't yet reflect it (i.e medians mainly up) we are already experiencing price deterioration?
As always thanks for the updated statistics Paul!
Any indication that the sales are due to a better class of properties on the market?
The REBGV Benchmark price is supposed to correct for this, although I'm not sure how accurate it can be month to month.
From the REBGV:
BENCHMARK PRICE: Estimated sale price of a benchmark property. Benchmarks represent a typical property within each market.
I have no idea how they decide on what's typical. Pretty confusing.
Here's a page that explains the HPI (or benchmark price). The theory is that they can track a combination of features that make up a 'typical' home for a certain area.
Instead of measuring goods and services, the HPI measures the change in price for a basket of housing features Greater Vancouverites buy most such as lot size, number of rooms, age of the home, the neighbourhood, etc.
They started tracking the benchmark in 1997, but they use 1991 as their 'baseline' year. I've read through the description of how the benchmark is determined, but I'm still not clear on how they figure out the individual dollar figure given to each feature.
That's a great link. Thanks Pope!
Paul I get 11.24% drop in sales.
Is there somthing I am missing?
100((995/1121)-1)=-11.24%
That's correct for SFH. We have to combine attached and apartment.
Thanks for the latest numbers Paul! 11,700 total inventory, finally a day without tonnes of expiries.
Do you know when the last time we had this type of inventory? Not sure how back your numbers go.
Also, how's business on your end in N. Van, going lately? Before today the demand looked fairly strong.
Nevermind the above question about inventories, just located your charts, we're higher but not by that much over the past two years.
Last March 6th we had 10,172 listings for the REBGV. We are over 15% higher now than last year and the trend is getting stronger.
Sales off 6.5% still indicate a strong market. We are still in a sellers market. If our sales continue to slow and listings continue to grow... well :0
Demand is still here but we have to price properties sharply. In the past few years you could be off and still have a great chance of a quick sale.
Thanks for the input Paul. Interesting times, will become even more interesting the next 6-18 months.
Question for Paul about the Daily Numbers:
There are two different groups of properties in question, right?
1) properties that had all their Subjects removed that day, and
2) properties that closed on that day.
So, Closed properties are described in
- median sales price
- highest sold over list
- lowest sold under list
- highest price of day
- lowest price of day
But, what about
- number of sales
- sell/list ratio
- average days on market
Are these numbers all for the Subjects Removed properties, or is one or more of them for the Closed properties?
It's of interest because when things slide it will be seen first in the Subjects Removed numbers, then a month or two later in the Closed numbers. I suspect that the # of sales and avg days on market are for the Subjects Removed.
It would be great to see the "avg days on market," etc., for both the group of properties, so we could see changes in the market wash past both observation points, but I know you're not interested in adding more numbers.
Could you clarify this one for us so we know which group of properties the numbers are assigned to.
Thanks much, great numbers, good blog. I'll probably be buying properties in 2011 - 2013 and will keep your name in mind.
Whybuywhenucanrent?
Hello Whybuy,
Very good question. All of the stats reported to the board are as of the subject removal date. At this time the home is considered sold.
Hmmm. Interesting. I always thought the sales price numbers were old and stale, rather than current. That does put things in a different perspective.
I know folks have asked about this before (like maybe me), but what % of the "subjects removed" properties end up being cancelled? Probably very few--I'm thinking most cancellations happen because a subject fails.
Thanks for the clarification,
Whybuywhenucanrent
Not very many transactions fall through after subject removal, as this leads to court time and deposit losses.
Check out this Seattle bubble archive link. Seattle market 13 months ago:
"January 2007
Active Listings: up 22% YOY
Pending Sales: down 6% YOY
Median Closed Price: $429,495, up 10% YOY"
Maybe Vancouver is different?
Lovely. Thanks for the rapid numbers upload Paul, cool. Best site.
Paul - in your view - are things COOLING?
anon: The second post on this thread illustrates my view.
Cooling yes. Cold? Not even close!
Jesse "Seattle market 13 months ago:"
We're almost a perfect photo copy, except I think when we go down we'll catch up to Seattle and beat them to the ground. After all they DO have an industy(s) other then building condo's!
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRR
I wonder whether it would be interesting to track avg. sales price of the cheapest x% of sales (maybe bottom 80% or everthing below the median).
It might show to be a little more sensitive to downward pressure on prices, as it seems the $2m-$4m sales throw that metric all over the place.
Any thoughts on this from those that are a little better versed in statistics?
Hey Paul; Mish would like to do a piece on Vancouver bubble potential. Check his request out in the comments section of his blog.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3aqn3e
You could probably help him with specific data requests.
Thanks!
Thanks for the heads up. I let him know he is welcome to use my data.
was there some listings on Saturday as well, atleast in FV? My crappy method of tracking inventory tells me that there were some in FV atleast. Could you confirm please?
Hi, yes it looks like 210 listings were added to the FV on the weekend.
Thanks Paul, and no sales I presume. it happened last year as well this time of the year. Only thing, summer came for rescue last year. This year, lets keep our fingers crossed.
37% Sell/List ratio in the FV over the last 14 days.
Paul, love the daily updates, thank you for compiling the data.
"37% Sell/List ratio in the FV over the last 14 days."
wow, dunno why I get this sadistic pleasure out of the tsunami that is approaching fast. Maybe because I am too tired of arguing sense with the RE tycoons. To the point that I avoid it at any cost these days, till it gets out of control. Feel sorry for hard working people who are scared to buy in this crappy market by stupid "priced out forever" talk.
Paul, any idea where does FV inventory stand? Has it crossed 9000? seems likely
I will get back to you tomo am on that number. Check out the Sell/list ratio on todays REBGV stats. Yikes!
Whoa, those are insane sell/list ratios for condos and houses-- single-digit sales...
You know what that means-- it's only up from here, the mountains are coming to save us!!!
Hi Paul - do the sales get updated everyday, along with the listings, or are the listings prioritized?
I love the stats dude.
Q - are, in your opinion, realtors 'warning' their selling clients to price their listings 'sharper' due to the runup in listings, or do you think realtors/sellers are by and large (in the near-term, in any event) oblivious to the changes that have taken place over the past couple of months? thx.
Last year we had days of over 400 listings. Todays 222 hardly seems reason to run out of time to add all the sales. I am sure we will balance out later this week. This in unusual to say the least.
I would say the average Joe thinks Vancouver is different, the olympics are coming and prices will go up forever and maybe plateau for while.
Agents have to price more sharply than the last couple years. When prices are this high you can't be 10% off or you will sit on market.
"will get back to you tomo am on that number. Check out the Sell/list ratio on todays REBGV stats. Yikes!"
thanks paul. I think the low sell/list is due to lack of data input staff. Even listings are too low.
Hey Paul,
I echo the thanks for the stats!
When a presale goes up for sale, do all the units for sale get counted individually? If so, is it safe to assume the number of sold units includes each individual units?
I apologize if this has been asked in the past, somewhat new to your site.
Cheers!
For total FV inventory I count 7471
Hi Paul
Love the stats but there is one that I would really love to have. That is the number of sales that lost money. I do not expect this to be anything but zero till the market turns but it should be a good turning point indicator. Simply did the property sell for more or less at the previous transaction.
This is probably difficult and do not bother if it is.
Thanks
Dyugle
"For total FV inventory I count 7471"
Somehow what realtors see is different from what FVREB posts in their monthly stats , whatever be the reason. I remember that guy "Van RE Numbers" posted 5913 for August 31, where as FVREB numbers said the inventory was 8286. Extrapolating your number (8286/5913)*7471, we get 10,469, which seems to be too high. Anyways, guess we got to wait till month end for a good apple to apple comparison.
Dyugle: That would be a great stat I agree with you. I would however have to go through each one so it's not gonna happen.
Anonymous: My FV inventory count is exact. Perhaps the first guy only counts attached and detached. You also have to add multi family and bare lots.
So, looks like yesterday's sell list was no input error. I can't wait to see the updated charts!
12696
It appears this is higher than the peak inventory of 2007. Correct?
"My FV inventory count is exact."
That is right, he used to do that. But the problem is that Feb ended with 8185 listings and there is no way that inventory has dropped 800 units with 37% sell list. There is surely something that FVREB adds, maybe commercial lots/props as well.
Patiently; From eye balling the inventory chart it appears we did not pass 12700 at all last year. These counts are done at month end so we will have to see where we end up. Currently we are up 18% in total iventory compared with March 18 07. Wow! Thats just from Jan 1st.
Anon: Good point it must be commercial listings. I do not know how else to make sense of it. Please feel free to post you FV info on this blog. Many are interested.
I say we need a 30% YOY inventory increase to really 'scare' folks. Paul, how much are sales down, YOY?
thank u!
also, is there an all-time inventory high that we are getting close to?
Sales last month were down 6.4% compared with Feb 07 and 9% compared with Feb 06.
I am not sure where one would locate an inventory numuber for the last many decades but I have one that tracks back over 3 years. That's a start.
http://www.nvcondos.realpagemaker.com/aPage.jsp?aPageId=32
as of today, the sales are down app 22% when extrapolated, while listings are in line with last year. What does this mean. This means if the sales listing proportion remains same for rest of the month as it has been till now, we would see a 22% drop in sales and flat listing. One has to keep in mind that we have two less days this year, hence listings are coming no change where as sales are dropping like a rock. Got to see how spring shapes up this year.
continuing from the last post. The listings are projected to remain flat, and sales down by 18%. Too much volatility in daily numbers.
Paul is VREB working today? I just received 10 new listings for an area that were not listed yesterday? (False Creek North. Maybe they are back logged and working OT?
Good evening Strataman,
Nothing uploaded today on MLX. Sometimes the property search sends listings out at odd hours. Not sure why exactly.
Don't click on the Dumuro post. Looks like trouble.
Thanks, I got rid of it.
Paul, I just read on Rob Chipman's site that after speaking with the MLS, Rob learned that they had received over 500 listings after the long weekend. Apparently they will be working until 9:00 PM tonight to get them up.
Do you know whether and to what extent that surge of long weekend listings has been incorporated into this week's listing numbers so far?
Hi Johnnyrent:
Yes MLS has a message of the day up which states they will be adding listings as late as 9pm for this week.
There have also been lots of sales. Inventory on a whole is not climbing as quickly but we are still at 15% higher inventory than last year.
This year we find ourselves in a more bearish, bull market :)
Hey Paul,
Thanks for the numbers! Just looking at your chart which plots each month's inventory since Jan 2005 and am wondering what the previous high was, it looks like it occurred in Oct of 2006, I can't find the exact number anywhere. Could you tell me what the inventory was at the end of that month?
Cheers!
It was 12925 for month end Oct 2006. We may beat that but it will be close with expirys. We have Mondays numbers as well.
Thanks for that Paul.
You're pretty objective, which is why I respect you, is there a number of inventory (say 15,000 - 20,000) that you believe will begin downward pressure on prices through competition? Or do you believe prices and inventory are both trending higher and a variable would have to be introduced (ie. higher interest rate) before we see prices decline?
paul, thanks for the numbers. Really really appreciate them. Could you please tell if they are adding listings today at FV?
I definitely consider higher inventory bearish. A specific number is hard to say. MOI or months of inventory is a better indicator because it takes sales into consideration. I think about 7 months + MOI and prices should soften. We could have that at 20k or 10k if sales fall off a cliff. The trend in the states however is for inventory to swell and sales to taper off. We are up about 20% now for the REBGV from 07 and sales are off about 7%. If this continues the only way prices can go is down. Although it could be a year before we see YOY declines due to stubborn sellers in denial about pricing. This is of course only if the trend continues.
Anon: I will update you later in the day on the FV info.
The FV is not uploading anything today.
Great blog & #'s Paul.
A realtor I will defintely call upon in the future.
As a fellow BCIT grad I see where your honesty and integrity are a key part in your blog.
Thanks again,
Paul, this is what is commonly defined as "the beginning of the end" for the bull market.
Love your stats.
Its all downhill from here. Yes, that's right.
Thanks very much for the support guys! Really appreciate it.
I will have a new inventory update post for Monday the 31st at 10pm! Will we finish March over 13,000?Stay tuned...
Thanks Paul!
13,000...will be interesting...if we do, wonder if this gets any press...doubt it...
I'm picking 15,000 for this time next month - Paul, do you think this is unrealistic (too high)?
Last year inventory grew by about 1000 listings in April. So 2k may be high but change is in the air...
I have to disagree that smart money is heading for the exits.I just can't see some one used to a 2 or 3 million dollar home with a garden they planted, and the sense of personalization, becoming renters. Nothing wrong with renting of course, but what would they rent that they would be happy with?
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