Dead cat bounce or something more?

Many months ago everyone was making predictions about how high inventory would balloon this spring and whether or not we would get a bounce. I think it's safe to say the vast majority of bears (myself included) have been caught off guard with the strength of the spring market.

Inventory is sitting at under 15k while many predicted a number close to 25k for June. What interests me most is whether this bounce is the beginning of a recovery and a stabilizing of prices or just a spring blip which will begin to trend down later this year.

Many assumed that poor job numbers and weak economic data among other reasons would continue to hurt housing prices bringing Vancouver real estate to new lows in 2009. The CMHC still seems bearish on BC real estate forecasting a 13% decline in home prices in 2009 and 2.3% in 2010. Considering the strength of this spring’s market rally I am surprised to see this.

The S/L ratio which we keep a close eye on is far stronger than the last many months and even last spring. At a glance of Gavin's weekly stats I see S/L Ratio's at 70% and even 90% (a vast improvement over the 30's of last spring). Sales are still very low but the lack of listings flooding the market has improved MOI to the point of prices increases.

What are you seeing out there? Are opens slammed? Multiple offers? Any predictions on what’s to come this summer?

I personally would not expect a return to a bull market just yet...

Paul

Trickling up....for now.

Who's buying and why are they buying now???
For a while there i thought it was just me who was having one of the busiest months in the last few years. The news was still reporting increasing unemployment along with increased personal and commercial bankruptcy rates. However, as the month carried on, i realized it wasn't just me- its everybody. My office is buzzing with activity, my friends downtown office is the same and a realtor that I refer business to on Gibsons said he expereincing more activity now than in the past year. I was also talking to a mortgage broker colleague of mine the other day and he informed me that in his industry many of them are working 12-14 hour days to keep up with the increased market activity. Below is a sample of some current rates being offered:

Fixed Rate Mortgages:

1 Year............. 2.90%
2 Year............. 3.05%
3 Year............. 3.15%
4 Year............. 3.79%
5 year…………..3.75%
7 Year............. 5.15%
10 Year........... 5.25%

For a $300,000 mortgage with five year fixed term at %3.75 your monthly payment would be $1536 for a 25 year amortization or $1278 for a 35 year amortization.

In my opinion this current market bounce is being driven by first time buyers attracted into the market by low rates and the opportunity to look at properties at a much slower pace than years past. This in turn has had the trickle up effect on the market. Sellers of condos are buying townhouses, sellers of townhouses buying detached homes and so on.

We've seen an almost across the board sweep for the bulls for April:

MOI -24% (MOM) This one caught me off guard. Just over 5 months of inventory. All those expired and cancelled listings never came back on in force. When/if that does happen and listing counts start to rise again...look out.

SALES +30% (MOM) . First time buyers getting those %3.79 rates are the driving force behind this one.

AVERAGE PRICE SFH: $815,099( +6.8% mom) AVERAGE PRICE CONDO $397,404 (+4.9% mom). I think we learned that sometimes as the market can fall quickly that it can rise just as fast. I'm not saying this will continue but man did it happen fast.



Litmus test will be the summer for sure.


I will conitinue doing the daily, weekly and monthly stats for while longer. Im going on vacation for 8 days starting on monday so nothing for next week.

Thanks for all your support. I wish everybody well and have a great summer.
Cheers to all!!
Gavin

Missing numbers until site is working!!!

North Vancouver MLS Daily Stats (SFH)
Date	3-Apr	2-Apr	1-Apr
Average sales price	$929,500	$679,150	$902,099
Median sales price	$747,500	$679,150	$925,000
Average days on market	25	15	24
Sales price/list price ratio	97%	99%	96%
Number of new listings	1	9	12
Number of sales	10	2	7
Sell / list ratio	1000%	22%	58%
Highest sold over list %	1%	0%	0%
Lowest sold under list %	-7%	-1%	-9%
Highest price of the day	$1,825,000	$685,000	$1,213,690
Lowest price of the day	$600,000	$673,300	$659,000
Active SFH listings	330	343	336
Total NV listings	841	857	852
North Vancouver MLS Daily Stats (CONDO)
Date	3-Apr	2-Apr	1-Apr
Average sales price	$412,750	$359,167	$429,750
Median sales price	$420,000	$362,500	$419,000
Average days on market	27	69	62
Sales price/list price ratio	97%	98%	98%
Number of new listings	6	4	7
Number of sales	8	3	4
Sell / list ratio	133%	75%	57%
Highest sold over list %	0%	0%	11%
Lowest sold under list %	-4%	-4%	-5%
Highest price of the day	$582,000	$393,000	$660,000
Lowest price of the day	$255,000	$322,000	$221,000
Active Condo listings	478	481	483
Total NV listings	841	857	852
GVRD MLS Daily Stats (SFH)
Date	3-Apr	2-Apr	1-Apr
Average sales price	$825,416	$761,526	$861,670
Median sales price	$653,000	$631,500	$657,000
Average days on market	72	75	45
Sales price/list price ratio	94%	93%	94%
Number of new listings	68	91	132
Number of sales	57	42	40
Sell / list ratio	84%	46%	30%
Highest sold over list %	2%	21%	9%
Lowest sold under list %	-29%	-26%	-18%
Highest price of the day	$2,350,000	$2,500,000	$4,100,000
Lowest price of the day	$365,000	$379,000	$389,000
Active SFH listings	6,143	6,139	6,104
Total GVRD listings	15,173	15,135	15,115
GVRD MLS Daily Stats (CONDO)
Date	3-Apr	2-Apr	1-Apr
Average sales price	$320,878	$382,926	$363,820
Median sales price	$320,500	$363,750	$333,000
Average days on market	57	66	62
Sales price/list price ratio	96%	95%	95%
Number of new listings	124	126	113
Number of sales	62	66	69
Sell / list ratio	50%	52%	61%
Highest sold over list %	0%	4%	11%
Lowest sold under list %	-41%	-13%	-19%
Highest price of the day	$582,000	$754,500	$745,000
Lowest price of the day	$88,112	$159,000	$135,000
Active Condo listings	8,041	8,008	8,017
Total GVRD listings	15,173	15,135	15,115

Who is this new guy?

Before I introduce myself to all of you I wanted to first say a big thank-you to Paul and Sandra taking the time to get my wife and I ready for this next project. I’m hoping that since Paul and his wife are still together after doing this website for 3 years it will not lead to any marital challenges.

I must say that seeing how Paul and Sandra run the back end of this site and how they’ve created spreadsheets for the data, I felt and still feel, a bit apprehensive about taking on such a large challenge. I can tell you that the amount of work they put in over the last three years on a DAILY basis has been massive!! Luckily Paul has promised he won’t desert me too soon.

To all of you who appreciate the site, and all the work they’ve put in, I wanted to let you all know that Paul and I have worked out a referral arrangement for all of you who will either buy or sell in the future and were looking forward to working with Paul. I look forward to having the opportunity to work with you.

When Paul approached me about taking over his business and we got to talking about the site and his clients we knew it was going to be a good fit. We both have similar philosophies on real estate and how to go about helping people make informed decisions on what is “usually” your life’s biggest purchase. We have many similarities in that both our wives are accountants, we both have kids(me two, Paul almost two) and both believe in always giving straightforward no nonsense advice. I know that many of you use this site as an indicator of where the markets are going and I look forward to keeping the site up to date to help all you with whatever you plan to do down the road.

I’ve been in real estate for 4 years and it that time have earned the MLS Medallion award for 2007 for being in the top 10% of all GVRD realtors. I’ve also won the Prudential Sussex Presidents Circle award for being on the top 5% of all 15,000 Prudential North America agents and on two separate occasions I’ve won the Leading Edge Society award for being in the top 8%. I’m a very hands on realtor with a strong belief that your best interests are served when armed with all the current information possible.

That’s it for me. I could go on longer(just ask my wife) but I wont bore you. I look forward to chatting with many of you by email or the phone or even in person. The site will continue and Paul has encouraged me to make it even better which I plan to do….eventually. I’m still working out the kinks and am no computer wizard but I will do my best to live up to Paul’s high standards.


Cheers
Gavin

My last Monthly Update! ***Benchmarks added***

*****

Benchmark prices:

Detached:-.94%
Attached:+.23%
Condo:-.44%


*****

The pre-spring market is here! February provided statistical information that both the Bear, and the Bull camps can get excited about. Here are some key numbers:


For the Bulls:

94% MOM (month over month) gain in sales activity 771(Jan 09) / 1494(Feb 09)

26% fewer listings came on the market compared with Last February. Although the total inventory level is higher than last year, we have yet to see the "flood of listings" many bears are expecting. 5467(Feb 08) / 4049(Feb 09)

The average price on detached homes increased: 1.2% to $792,551 from last month ($782,961)

The MOI (months of inventory) dropped drastically from 20 months to 10.4 months!



For the Bears:

YOY (year over year) sales are very weak, down 45% 2733(2008) vs. 1494(2009)

Total inventory is up 35% YOY (11,515 Feb 08) / (15,578 Feb 2009)

The total MOI is far higher than last year at 10.4 months compared with 4.2 months last February.

The average condo (apt) price decreased -3.4% to $353,064 compared with last month ($365,657)

The average attached (townhouse) price decreased 2.7% to $437,233 compared with last month ($449,389)


Inventory



Sales



My thoughts

The numbers don't give us a very clear picture as to where the spring market is going, however those looking for a bounce may be disappointed. I look forward to seeing the benchmark prices. When available, they will be added to this post.

It's hard to let go of this blog/website after all Sandra and I have put into it. I will be around, but will miss all the fun I had creating the website and watching it grow. Feel free to email me with questions or comments anytime. I will be watching the local market as closely as ever. paulboenisch@gmail.com

The website will live on! UPDATE

********************* Breaking News *******************

It's comment moderation time people. Don't worry, this is just to keep out UN2010. He is done.

Gavin and I are both online frequently so you will not have to wait for long to see your comments appear.


*********************************************************







Great news!!

I have worked out an agreement with the person I had hoped would continue on with the numbers.

We are working out the details, but most importantly, the website will live on.

I am very happy that we can continue on. The new site owner is a fantastic Realtor and most importantly honest and objective. I could not have left the site in better hands.

I will have more details and the identity of our new site manager / real estate expert very soon!

Together we should be able to improve the current site. I would appreciate your feedback on how to remain / become your first choice for market stats and real estate advice.

Farewell

It is with mixed feelings that I’m typing this post to say “good-bye”.
After over a year of weighing the pros and cons, my wife Sandra and I have made the decision to move our 1.5 (one on the way) kids to Charlottetown, PE.

Why?

We initially were interested in Charlottetown because we have some family there, and after researching it and visiting PEI, the vastly improved quality of life is what convinced us. Sandra and I want to have the time to be very involved in the lives of our children, and PEI is affordable as well as being beautiful.

I will miss the opportunity to work with many of you. I always got a kick out of meeting the person behind the avatar. However, I look forward to selling real estate in a market where I can more easily see value for the dollar. Selling first-time home buyers into a 200k house will feel good compared to the recent speculative mania that has infested BC real estate. And when you toss in beautiful beaches and the best golf in Canada it all made a tough decision a little easier.

I started this blog to document what I anticipated would be the beginning of a Vancouver real estate crash. I enjoyed posting the daily stats, and most of all loved reading the contributions to the blog.

I will be posting the February numbers for month-end. I wanted to give you some notice and not just slip away in the night. The blog will stay up but the website will be done. I will always hover around the Vancouver housing blog scene.

Your friend,
Paul


P.S.

If you need an honest local realtor I would love to refer you to a colleague. I have trusted contacts in the entire REBGV. And if you’re interested in PEI real estate whether it’s for relocation or an affordable summer home, you can reach me at paulboenisch@gmail.com .

I expect to be licensed to sell PE real estate this summer.